Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [March 18]

BTC is trading in the same price range as 82,000 dollars from the week before last, this past week.

The 200-day moving average line in red on the chart is viewed as a trend indicator, but looking at the current price, it appears to have clearly broken below it.

The current BTC price is fully bearish, and experts are reporting a possibility of a drop to $75,000.

The current fear index for Bitcoin is 34 and has calmed down somewhat from the peak.

Also, cryptocurrency ETF and ETP have recorded two weeks in a row of negative fund inflows, and outflows have reached 5+ 17 billion dollars.

The outflows are particularly large for #Bitcoin, totaling $9.78 billion. Another notable asset is$BNB, with outflows of $5.28 billion.

Last Friday marked 17 consecutive days of outflows, of which 93% were from the United States. However, inflows since the beginning of the year remain at $9.12 billion and are positive.

A falling price can also be seen as a buying opportunity. In Japan, long-term government bond yields have risen and surpassed 3% for the first time in history.

In such a situation, attention is on whether Bitcoin demand will rise due to Japan’s increasing fiscal burden.

◯ Ethereum price forecast is revised downward

According to a latest report by Standard Chartered regarding Ethereum, in 2025 the ETH price forecast is$10,000 down to$4,000, a 60% reduction.

Main factor is the impact of Base's growing market share. The analysis notes that Base has already stolen $50 billion from Ethereum's market capitalization.

The report points out that the Layer-2 network (especially Base ) is siphoning "excess profits" from the Ethereum ecosystem. Moreover, ETH is becoming commoditized within the "Layer 2" framework, and most transaction fees no longer pass through Layer 1, which is also seen as a problem.

Jeffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research, has suggested, “The solution is to tax Layer-2 excess profits as governments tax excess profits from foreign mining companies.” If this is not realized, the ETH/BTC ratio is expected to continue declining.

On the other hand, the same report projects Bitcoin's price in 2029 at $500,000, predicting strong growth during Trump's presidency. It remains to be seen how such market environment changes will affect ETH's performance.

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There is something called Ethereum’s L2 BASE.

Created by the major US cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, L2 is 2. Because Ethereum fees are high, many users conduct trades through BASE, according to the explanation. Ethereum is needed for security, and many people trade through BASE. Therefore, I share the view that the Ethereum ecosystem needs the market capitalization of Ethereum itself to rise.

Currently, Ethereum leads the DeFi ecosystem and I continue to hold it as a staple.

◯ Trump does not anticipate a recession.

On the 11th, President Trump said he does not see the United States entering a recession, despite concerns that tariffs could depress the US economy and cause a sharp drop in the stock market.

At the White House, Trump commented that a recession is “not at all expected. This country will be in a good economy,” noting that markets rise and fall, but “we must rebuild the country.”

Background to recent market declines included warnings by the president and government officials that tariffs and significant federal spending cuts could push the US economy into a difficult situation. Trump did not deny the possibility of a recession in an interview with Fox News on the 9th.

Asked about market instability, Trump replied, “No, I don’t mind it,” and added, “By buying everything—stocks, bonds, and more—some people will reap great profits. A real economy will emerge, not a false one.”

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It is said that a major factor affecting financial assets now lies in the United States.

However, policies aimed at eliminating waste are said to have a large short-term impact, and if this can lead to monetary easing, it could become a big opportunity.

◯ Trump's administration’s view on cryptocurrencies

David Sacks, who handles crypto policy in the Trump administration, shares his view on Bitcoin.

Why is Bitcoin the only one treated as special, and why is the discussion about reserve assets split between Bitcoin and others?

Bitcoin is a special existence. Unlike other cryptocurrencies, it has no issuer and is highly decentralized.

Bitcoin's origins are mysterious. It is unknown who Satoshi is, and how it was born is not fully explained. This enigmatic background is one reason it is regarded as special.

· It boasts a market capitalization of $2 trillion, making it the most valuable cryptocurrency and the most secure. It has a history spanning more than 15 years, and has never been hacked.

· When David first bought Bitcoin around 2011, it was $120, and now it is $90,000. Despite drastic price fluctuations, it has continued to grow steadily.

· Not merely a miracle but secured by excellent design; despite attempts to breach cryptography, it continues to function.

· Although many were skeptical, it has persisted through various ups and downs. This resilience proves its value.

· Bitcoin is the most widely accepted store of value worldwide and deserves special treatment.

The United States is clearly moving to separate Bitcoin from other assets at the political level.

——Koji Higashi 

◯ Market capitalization after dilution XRP surpasses ETH in diluted FDV.

$XRP FDV indicates$ETH has inverted.

It is a true victory for the cryptocurrency industry and blockchain adoption.

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Recently, ETH has not performed well in price. The diluted market capitalization (FDV) is used to compare future prices, and XRP has outperformed ETH at present (for reference).

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（This article has been distributed since 2016）