Dollar/yen remains bullish until the Bank of Japan meeting tomorrow
Good morning
Last night's U.S. indicators came out weak, but the dollar/yen rose, didn’t it
[U.S.] New York Fed Manufacturing Index (March) [5.7]
Forecast: -2.0
Actual: -20.0
[U.S.] Retail Sales Month-over-Month (February) [-0.9%]
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.2%
[U.S.] Retail Sales (ex Auto) Month-over-Month (February) [-0.4%]
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.3%
Initially fell, but was bought back
There seem to be buyers stepping in where large selling occurred
Could this also be a phenomenon caused by the Chicago futures dollar-yen short positions?
Table of contents
Chart analysis
Dollar/Yen four-hour chart
It is below the red 200 MA line
but it seems to have turned into an uptrend
In an ascending triangle formation
If it breaks the horizontal line, it could rise further
Looking at the daily chart
The downtrend is still in place
Whether it breaks the black 20 MA line and rises remains to be seen
From the perspective of a retracement of the downtrend
Fibonacci 0.382 is the orange line
The halfway point is the green line
One-hour chart
It has been rising cleanly
Again, the key is how it breaks the red horizontal line
On the one-hour chart, the pivot R1 is slightly higher; might aim for this area
The chart pattern looks like forming a cup with handle, with 150 yen level possible
However, since the market is unpredictable, if it breaks the red rising line
a sharp decline is also possible
Fifteen-minute chart
It sits above the 200 MA and 20 MA lines
In the short term, it seems ready to break to either the blue or red line
Could it push higher with a pullback and break upward?
Upside bias remains until tomorrow’s BOJ meeting
Rebound expectation for the dollar/yen short position
Regarding dollar/yen, in the Chicago IMM futures market,
the yen long position stands at 134,000 contracts
and accordingly the dollar short/yen long position has accumulated
to a significant extent. Therefore, many expect
that among them, the dollar/yen short position’s buying back will push
the dollar/yen back toward the 150 area.
This is likely contributing to the dollar/yen rise observed
However, this dollar/yen short position is not simply because of a bearish dollar
that prompts shorts; it is also a hedge against risk-off conditions caused by
large-scale tariff implementations.
Considering the uncertainties and opacity of the Trump administration,
and the potential for sudden, large decisions
to be made, it is not easy to break the dollar/yen short position
without causing a breakup of the position?
Wouldn’t it be difficult to reverse the short position?
× ![]()
