Next week’s USD/JPY market: I’ve boldly speculated—will it break 149.133?
Good evening~
The market is on holiday today
You don’t have to publish by 9 a.m. this morning
I slept in and took my time thinking
The USD/JPY has been rising during Tokyo and London hours recently
and it has been retracing during New York hours
Last night’s decline was small, but it rebounded at the halfway point
What will happen at the start of the week?
I’m publishing a little early
Chart Analysis
USD/JPY Weekly chart
It’s a small bullish candle after a large bearish candle
I’ll take a closer look
After the half retracement, it finished at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement
This could become support and push higher again, or it may head lower
Daily chart
Downtrend, but the short-term GMMAs are starting to flatten
A double-top forms a key breakout and pullback scenario
It is below the 20 MA; will it break above and rise
Or will it be rejected and continue its decline
Under the theory of the W-top formation,
it would pull back to the green line before dropping, but…
what will happen
4-hour chart
It’s being held down by the downward trendline on the 4H,
has the low been stepped up, entering an uptrend?
The key is breaking the green line
1-hour chart
With the W-bottom formation and rise, as per theory
it pulls back to a key line and then rises
The GMMAs are turning upward
Ultimately, will it break above the recent high green line and rise
If next week continues the same pattern
it may break during the day
15-minute chart
To consider it in an uptrend,
it must decisively break 149.133
Before that, it must break the blue 148.819 resistance and the red downward line
I’ll publish an assumed pivot line for Monday morning
With the Nikkei futures rising as well,
Monday morning the Nikkei may also start higher
Therefore, USD/JPY may also start higher
