3/12 Whale円 long position is packed, so will USD/JPY rise?

Good morning

Ukraine agrees to 30-day ceasefire proposal

Tariffs are making Trump and Canada swing the market

Today at 21:30 there is the U.S. CPI, right

Yesterday at 23:00 there was U.S. JOLTS

From 17:00 to 23:00, the USD/JPY showed an upward trend in anticipation of this

After the announcement, it dropped sharply and then rose again in a roller coaster

Could this be traders adjusting long yen positions ahead of the data release?

So after the release there was temporary buying pressure, and then a decline?

Just imagining something like that

Yesterday's results,

USD/JPY 15-minute chart

During the day, green half-retrace line and

the pivot line S1 is acting on the downside

After the rise, pivot line R1 is acting

How about today

Chart analysis

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Long-term GMMAs point downward

20-MA has started to turn sideways; a purple long bottom could form in a swing

Short-term Fibonacci 0.382 near 148.337 may be reached

In that case, I will aim to short at 148.300 for scalping

Also check the green half-retrace line

There is a pivot line a bit lower

1-hour chart

GMMAs are signaling upside

Whether it can break the recent high

There is resistance at the red line below

15-minute chart

I considered short-term movement

It is above the black 20-MA and moving along it upward

I will target a long on a scalp at 147.000

Today there will also be whale position adjustments

Will USD/JPY rise sharply?

Pay attention at 17:00

Maybe 16:00 today?

JPY long in Chicago IMM at historical highs

In the Chicago IMM futures market,

the yen long positions exceeded 133,000 contracts

Historically, the best yen long position

was around 60,000 contracts

The yen short exceeded 180,000 contracts last year, so

considering that, it isn’t particularly large, but

the yen long side (USD/JPY short) is at an all-time high


If the yen long has accumulated this much,

there is a possibility of buyback leading to a weaker yen, but

the Chicago players staking this much on yen strength

means there must be a reason for it

Perhaps it’s worth reconsidering?

Shall we ride the whale long-term?