3/9 We will aim for a return to selling this week as well. First, we will wait around the 148.67 area.
Good morning
The first week, full of economic indicators, has ended
Employment data show that US employment growth remained firm in February,
unemployment rate rose slightly.
A sudden surge in part-time workers who did not wish to work, and the number of workers with multiple jobs reaching a record high
The mixed strength and weakness reflect the volatile state of the employment market as policy changes rapidly
I personally view the US economy as slowing
Dollar/yen initially fell at the release of the employment data, then staged a sharp rise
After that
it turned downward again and then rose again, a roller coaster
This happened because, at the time of the release, traders who saw a sell-off suddenly pushed selling
I think the large shorts were covered by heavy buying, lifting prices
I was surprised, but the movement faded and it returned to the normal decline
Was there a plan to place large orders to wait for the release, so as to unwind many positions?
The subsequent rise after calmness
“Federal Reserve Chair Powell acknowledged signs of increased uncertainty about the US economy’s outlook,
and he indicated it is not necessary for authorities to hasten policy adjustments.”
What about this headline?
Will this effect continue into the start of the week?
Chart Analysis
Weekly chart
The overall trend could be interpreted as a decline during a head-and-shoulders formation
It ends with a large bearish candle
Neckline at 139.874
A break of this level could lead to further declines
Thus some say it may aim for 130 yen
If you take a longer period
The first wave is long, but it could be a corrective wave within the Elliott wave
Daily chart
Decline after a broken W-top
GMMA points downward, indicating a strong downtrend
Not shown here, but it ends with a bullish long lower shadow
A rebound by breaking the key level 148.679 and then rising
The theory is to retrace back to this point and reverse lower
4-hour chart
There is 148.596 near 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of 148.679
Before that, will the black 20-period moving average appear?
To look for a pullback selling, we want to gauge the strength of the ascent
It is possible it reaches the green midpoint retracement line
1-hour chart
Within a falling channel,
short-term GMMA and 20-day moving averages are turning up
suggesting a temporary rise
The most recent decline’s 50% retracement is 149.114
Currency strength indicator shows yen likely to move downward and dollar likely to move upward
Given the US policy changes toward Ukraine, European countries,
× ![]()
