Even with Trump's tariff action, large players still push yen higher; waiting for shorts to 150.278

Good morning

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Price is rising rapidly within a downtrend channel

stopping near the center line

The red line looks like a wall

1-hour chart

Overshoot of the recent half-move retracement at 149.688

I think there will be a moment of breaking down here

We’d also like to reference the orange pivot line

15-minute chart

In a W-bottom formation, it’s rising

The short-term blue line is a wall

Eyes on whether Trump’s tariff implementation increases buying pressure

Even if it goes higher, there is a strong wall at 150.278 in the short term

Regarding yesterday’s expected movement, the verification

to the lower red line

I expected a pullback followed by a rise,

but the pullback was deeper than expected and I got nervous

In yesterday’s scenario, it would reverse and fall near the pivot line

How about today

President Trump criticizes yen weakness

President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada

and, additionally, 20% tariffs on China

He pointed at Japan and China as causing currency depreciation

and stated he would impose tariffs if currency weakening cannot be corrected

The real feelings of President Trump have become clear

so the yen may strengthen

Even if U.S. economic indicators are a little better, tomorrow’s

Deputy Governor Uchida’s speech was somewhat dovish

and, in the longer term, a stronger yen is almost a certainty

Looking at the Chicago IMM, yen long positions

have expanded to net 95,000 contracts

Are the foreigners betting on yen appreciation?

Japanese participants tend to bet more on yen depreciation

but with Mr. Trump’s intentions now clear

it’s dangerous to continue holding yen short positions

(USD/JPY long) for a long time