Strong storm on the pound ahead... Will it be a week that goes down in history as Brexit plan approved?!

Between the United Kingdom and Europe, the Brexit plan is decided and is nearing the final stages.

From now on, Prime Minister May faces the approval process in the British Parliament.

While Parliament discusses the Brexit plan, Prime Minister May is traveling to explain it to various parties.

◎ This week's Brexit timetable

◆4th 9:15～ (Japan time 18:15～)

Parliament testimony on the Brexit withdrawal scenario and the Monetary Policy/Financial Stability Report

Governor Carney, Deputy Governor Broadbent (Monetary Policy), Deputy Governor Cunliffe (Financial Stability), and Deputy Governor Woods (Financial Conduct Authority)

◆4th, 5th, 6th, 10th, 11th

Debate in the British Parliament (House of Commons)

◆9th

TV debate on the Brexit plan

◆11th 19:00～20:30 (Japan time 4:00–5:30 on the 12th)

Brexit plan vote

◆13th, 14th

EU Summit

◎ Bloomberg poll

• Support for the Brexit bill in the British Parliament to be voted on on December 11

• Brexit bill is unlikely to pass (opposed) 55%
• Brexit bill is likely to pass (supported) 45%

• Pound/Dollar forecast
  • If rejected (opposed), 2500 dollars
  • If passed (supported), 1.3400 dollars

• If no deal occurs, 1.1700 dollars

If the result of the 11th vote allows Brexit to be approved, …

Final agreement at the EU Summit on the 13th and 14th.

Leave on March 29, 2019

If the 11th vote results in approval with Brexit amendments, …

Present the amendments at the EU Summit on the 13th and 14th.

If the EU Summit accepts the amendments, the withdrawal will be based on the amendments.

However, the EU says it will not accept the amendments.

If the result of the 11th vote is a rejection, …

We do not know what will happen.

The most likely scenario is a no-deal Brexit.

The Brexit deal with the EU would be void, with no transition period, exiting immediately or on March 29.

Other possibilities include renegotiation, another referendum, dissolution election, etc.,

All carry difficulties and seem hard to implement.

As a result, the possibility of a no-deal Brexit becomes higher.

However, the EU side is making perplexing, cryptic remarks.

EU President Tusk

“If the British Parliament rejects the proposal, the choice will be either an agreement or no Brexit”

No agreementNo Brexit??

Does “no Brexit” mean Britain will not leave the EU?

That is what comes to mind.

This week is aBrexit’s biggest turning point!

That alone could cause the pound to swing wildly with just a few remarks.

Also, this might be a historic week.