Attack or defense, Part 1

At the drinking party, topics like "do you prefer to attack or be attacked?" can come up, but in the market it is a question of "how much to aggress."

Being on the defensive is simply self-destructive, and unless you’re an extreme weirdo you probably don’t like it….

How do you think about the force and timing of the "attack" in terms of funds mobility, timing of moves, and the way you load up, etc.?

What is common to all who trade the market is the feeling of wanting to take a position.

Since you are in it to make money, there is nothing wrong with the idea that "if you don’t place bets you won’t win." However, people tend to overextend themselves... There is a term called the "posi-posi disease" to admonish this, but it seems that the tendency is to treat it as a self-deprecating joke rather than a warning.

It’s the usual boring sermon again, but indeed, there are many who overdo it. The image of considering funds mobility and having leeway is lacking, and even when one is "considering mobility," they tend to operate up to the limit with success as the premise. From experience, it is surprisingly common for a very reasonable person to think things through cautiously and still end up overdoing it.

When you are sure, you just go for it.

If the decision is "this is my turn," even if the outcome is misjudged, you can explain that attacking was correct. And since the action is taken with confidence, you should be able to clean up afterward as well.

The problem is when you’re unsure.

If you attack while uncertain, you won’t be able to deal with things when things don’t go as expected.

Even a tiny hole can ruin the great dam—your losses grow, you waste time on losing bets, and nothing good comes from it.

The "New Edition of the Command Line Positioning Method" Part Four: Practice and Experiment writes about determining position size in delicate situations as follows:

Choose the smaller quantity

For example, when watching two nearby futures contracts at once, the two lines may give different judgments. If one says to bet 1 unit and the other says to bet 2 units, you should adopt the smaller one, i.e., 1 unit.

Posi-posi disease is the opposite approach.

When you’re trading, it is routine to wonder whether to align with the larger or the smaller one. In such cases, the principle is to endure and keep it modest. If you apply the old tale of the "big chest and small chest," that is the correct approach.

If you’re unsure, don’t place a position

If you’re unsure, don’t add to it

If you’re unsure, close the position

When you act modestly and you could have earned more, it’s emotionally very unpleasant, but calculation-wise, keeping it restrained is correct. Prepare options like "place it a little later" or "rebalance after closing," and don’t force yourself to execute—these are practical basic guidelines.