Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [February 11]

Bitcoin from the week before last temporarily fell to $90,000 due to U.S. tariff policies, but last week there was little price movement, and it is currently hovering around the $98,000 level.

Since the end of last year, Bitcoin has fallen for various reasons and repeatedly rebounded, but among such movements, other cryptocurrencies have been gradually declining each time, and I feel the stress on cryptocurrency investors is mounting. Those who invest only in Bitcoin may not feel as much stress.

Recently, Grayscale filed for a Spot Cardano $ADA ETF with the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange). I don’t hear much news about Cardano, but given that a U.S. company is seeking to list a cryptocurrency ETF, does this imply that its market cap has been maintained for some reason? In addition to DOGE (Dogecoin), XRP (Ripple), Solana (SOL) and other brands have ETF applications, and there is attention on what will happen in 2025.

Also, President Trump has ordered a formal imposition of a 25% tariff on imports of steel and aluminum from all countries (to be announced on Wednesday or Thursday), a news item that is causing market uncertainty and making the market direction unclear.

In addition, there is movement on Bitcoin reserve laws in various U.S. states, and I feel that the United States could be facing a significant year for cryptocurrencies.

Renowned Arthur Hayes predicts that Bitcoin will first drop significantly and then rebound even more, and he believes this will depend largely on the U.S. FRB's monetary policy (rate cuts).

◯ Amid market uncertainty, Bitcoin is losing momentum, while gold has reached a record high - the block

As central banks continued aggressive purchases, gold surged to all-time highs and surpassed Bitcoin year-to-date. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has risen about 5% since the beginning of the year, and markets are reacting to President Donald Trump’s tariff proposals and broader macroeconomic risks, resulting in high volatility.

The bullish trajectory for gold is supported by ongoing central bank purchases, concerns about global trade policies, and investor demand for safe-haven assets

2024year’s largest purchasers of gold include Poland, India, Turkey, and China

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It seems the market is reacting strongly to Trump's policies, including tariff issues. Bitcoin is often referred to as digital gold, but at present it still appears highly correlated with stocks, which are risk assets.

In the meantime, traditional assets like gold are updating their all-time high prices.

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（This article has been distributed since 2016）