Organize and adjust existing positions ~ November 27 strategy and positions ~

◎ Current positions

① NZD/JPY Long position 73.98 entry

② EUR/USD Short position 1.1400 entry

③ EUR/GBP Short position 0.8900 entry

◎ Each position and current outlook

①NZD/JPY Long position

Entry 73.98 yen

Stop 76.00 yen

Take profit target 79.50 yen

NZD/JPY daily chart

NZD/JPY hourly chart

New Zealand has kept policy rates unchanged for a long period. Economic data show not bad numbers in inflation, employment, and economy. Despite continued declines in dairy prices, a key NZD industry, the NZD has started to rise. In the latest release, even with fairly weak data, the downside was limited.

As long as the current correlation remains broken, I view this as an upside phase. However, if it falls below 76.00 yen, I expect a pullback. Also, a concern is that it does not become risk-off. Risk-off typically hurts commodity currencies and benefits the yen, so be careful of a sharp reversal in a risk-off environment.

↓↓↓ Article at position entry time ↓↓↓

NZD buying strategy! W-bottom and inverted head & shoulders ～ NZD buy strategy on Oct 31 ～

②EUR/USD Short position 1.1400 entry

Entry 1.1400 dollars

Stop 1.1500 dollars

Take profit target 1.1220 dollars or 1.1200 dollars or 1.1100 dollars

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD hourly chart

The euro is basically a selling on rallies!

The problems the euro faces are deep-rooted, and there are many bearish factors. Recent economic data, including Germany, show weakness across major economies. President Draghi has said that “a large-scale monetary easing policy is still necessary” and that “recent economic data are weaker than expected,” raising concerns about growth. In the euro area, QE is expected to end this year, but expectations for rate hikes next autumn have faded. There have also been comments regarding easing policies such as LTRO, though it is unclear whether these refer to Italy specifically.

↓↓↓ What is “TLTRO”? ↓↓↓

“LTRO” and “TLTRO” – ECB easing measures for FX terminology explanation

The euro area’s largest concern is Italy. Italy is currently at odds over its budget. The real troublemaker is the far-right party. Yesterday, there were statements in Italy that “the 2019 deficit could be 2.2% or 2.6% of GDP depending on growth,” causing mixed interpretations in the market. Some interpret that commitments should be kept even if concessions are needed, while others interpret that even if GDP data is weak, the budget will not be revised. Either way, Italy is adjusting its stance to improve its position based on surrounding reactions.

Italy vs European Commission — a candid look at the budget negotiations

Also, the pair currency is the US dollar. Until year-end (FOMC), I expect dollar strength. Therefore, I anticipate holding positions until around mid-December. Around December 15, I plan to close one of the take-profit targets above.

↓↓↓ Factors supporting USD buying ↓↓↓

Dollar-yen buying strategy, a sturdy dollar-yen! ～ Dollar buying strategy on November 19 ～

③EUR/GBP Short position 0.8900 entry

Entry 0.8900 pounds

Stop 0.8900 pounds

Take profit target 0.8800 pounds or 0.8700 pounds

EUR/GBP daily chart

EUR/GBP hourly chart

This is not a position I plan to hold long, but it has become range-bound. Therefore, I will move the stop to break-even to avoid any loss. If it surpasses 0.8800 pounds, I will move the stop to 0.8800. I will secure at least the minimum profit and target 0.8700 pounds.

↓↓↓ Entry article ↓↓↓

Brexit negotiations — will Britain and Europe reach an agreement? ～ Pound buying strategy on November 22 ～

Britain did reach an agreement with Europe, but the question remains whether it can be approved domestically in the UK. Also, whether European countries will accept it smoothly. I am watching closely. If domestic approval is not obtained or if Prime Minister May faces a vote of no confidence, I intend to close the position immediately.

↓↓↓ Key points of Brexit agreement ↓↓↓

Brexit agreement at an extraordinary EU summit

↓↓↓ Gibraltar issue ↓↓↓

Gibraltar sovereignty issue! History and significance explained