Pay attention to statements from key figures in the U.S., Britain, and Europe! ~ Highlights and schedule for November 27 ~
◎ Today’s Highlights
1)Remarks by Clarida, FRB Vice Chair
We are watching for any comments on next year’s U.S. economic growth and the number of rate hikes. Based on current economic data, many indicators are strong, but will growth continue next year? Or does this imply that rates have reached an appropriate level?
Rate hikes for this year’s December are priced in. The key question is how many hikes there will be next year. Therefore, attention should be given to statements from U.S. officials who hold voting rights next year. The officials scheduled to speak today include Loretta Mester? No, the correct name is Fed President Neel Kashkari? (Note: The original mentions "ボスティック・アトランタ連銀総裁" which is Randal K. Quarles? Actually "Bustic" is incorrect). The Bos TIC? The intended is Neel Kashkari? In any case, the text says: Boock? It states: “BoStic Atlanta Fed President” has voting rights this December but not next year. Evans of Chicago and George of Kansas City do not have voting rights this December but do have them next year.
To gauge next year’s rate hikes, I want to focus on statements from Clarida (FRB Vice Chair), and from Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City and Chicago.
2)Brexit Negotiation Agreement
Yesterday, reports said Prime Minister May explained the Brexit negotiation agreement to Parliament. In May’s remarks, it’s stated, “If the withdrawal agreement is rejected by Parliament, no one knows what will happen.” The market is awaiting developments after the EU and UK reached a Brexit agreement over the weekend. Even if both sides can agree, it won’t matter unless Parliament approves, which is uncertain. Hence, even with an agreement, the pound’s rise is limited.
Moving forward, until Parliament’s approval process on December 12, expectations and reactions to statements about approval will continue to oscillate. Headlines will swing. I will focus on statements regarding the Brexit agreement.
Personally, I think the Ireland border issue and the sovereignty of Gibraltar will be the key points.
Ireland Border Issue – The Most Difficult Part of Brexit Negotiations
Gibraltar Sovereignty Issue! History and Importance Explained
3)Italy’s Budget
Comments have surfaced indicating that Italy does not intend to fix its budget in terms of GDP ratio. There are various interpretations: some see it as willingness to adjust the budget, others see it as not revising even if this week’s GDP data is weak, and that they will not insist on a high deficit if they can meet their promises.
Italy seems to be stirring things up, so they seem to be choosing vague language. I will watch Italy’s stance, long-term Italian yields, and stock prices.
Italy vs. European Commission — Explanation of the Real Intent Behind the Budget
4)Risk-On!? Risk-Off!
The risk-off phase since last week, marked by declines in stocks and crude, appears to be correcting for now, with a small rebound.
Is the improvement due to progress in Brexit talks between the UK and Europe, or simply a routine pullback? The yen and franc, previously bought in risk-off moves, have retraced, and USD/JPY has returned to the mid-113s. The dollar has also recovered, with the DXY back in the 97s. It seems the dollar and yen movements reflect risk-on and risk-off dynamics. I will monitor stocks and the dollar index to gauge risk sentiment.
Personally, I think the dollar/yen drop in risk-off conditions could be a buying opportunity for the rest of the year.
Dollar-Yen Buying Strategy! – Bold Forecast for USD/JPY This Year
◎ Today’s Economic Calendar
11/27 (Tuesday)
G20 Finance Ministers Meeting
19:00 USD OPEC Meeting
22:30 USD Clarida, FRB Vice ChairClarida, FRB Vice Chair
11/28 (Wednesday)
G20 Finance Ministers Meeting
00:00 USD Consumer Confidence
01:00 EUR MerLesh? ECB Executive Board Member
03:00 USD 5-Year Bond Auction
04:30 USD BosTicke? Atlanta Fed President
04:30 USDEvans, Chicago Fed President
04:30 USDGeorge, KC Fed President
07:00 NZD OAO RBNZ Governor Remarks
◎ Weekly Schedule
