Is this the start of a USD/JPY downtrend? Targeting a rebound around 154.2 in the short term

USD/JPY 1-hour chart

The orange range is being broken to the downside and retracing
The wall around 155 yen was broken and moved down to the 153 yen level

What was the strength of yesterday's decline?

It was related to Deep Seek

Last night's US S&P 500 opened with a gap down

The area above this line is displayed for free.

This suggests the Nikkei will also drop

Whether USD/JPY stays within the orange range and returns to the 155s
The wall around 154.8 yen is thick, so it is likely to bounce back for now, don't you think?

USD/JPY 15-minute chart

It just moved to the 154.8 yen area

Within an ascending channel,

there is also a possibility of take-profit by short sellers on declines

Since it could become an ascending flag within a downtrend

Longs, be careful

This is the recent retracement of the fall at the 0.382 Fibonacci level

Even if it rises, it will be around 155.28

If it falls, we will look for a short-term rebound around 154.2

The Sputnik Shock of Reiwa era?

China's emerging AI company Deep Seek

is extremely cost-effective and can perform at ChatGPT level without using the latest chips

and has even become the top downloaded app on the Apple Store

causing concerns that US IT technology is lagging behind China,
leading to a major fall in IT-related stocks

Last August, concerns rose that the US economy was weakening due to a sudden rise in unemployment

and that was the background for the decline.

This time it is more technical, so it may deepen further.

I would like to monitor the situation with a short USD/JPY position

Even if you take a short position
use an extreme account with no negative swaps.

https://note.com/icdyaroh2007/n/nc53e0edf257d