Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [January 14]

Bitcoin briefly fell near $90,000 yesterday, but recently rebounded and is hovering around $96,000 (around 15.1 million yen).

As you can see from the chart, this $90,000 level is a price point that has been hit back and forth many times and is highly watched. It keeps bouncing up and down, but on the chart the recent trend has been selling pressure from the downside, and even when it rebounds, it tends to fall back to $90,000.

Recently, rising U.S. long-term interest rates and the prospect of Fed rate cuts moving further away are said to be major factors in selling Bitcoin as a risk asset. There were also news reports that the U.S. government’s permission to sell Bitcoin by the Department of Justice had been granted (no official announcement available).

From the recent rebound in cryptocurrencies, XRP's (Ripple) rebound has been particularly large compared with other currencies, and is currently at $2.63 (about 416 yen).

XRP has already recovered to levels seen during the 2017 bubble.

The Trump administration will start soon on January 20.

All eyes are on whether there will be any statements on cryptocurrencies at the time of inauguration.

◯ Will there be a presidential order regarding cryptocurrencies?

According to The Washington Post, Donald Trump, the incoming president, plans to issue a presidential order regarding Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies on his first day in office.

During the campaign, Mr. Trump pledged to make the United States the "center of the world's cryptocurrency," aiming to establish Bitcoin reserves and create industry-friendly regulations — The Washington Post

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This is the latest news. It is being watched closely what exactly the presidential order regarding cryptocurrencies will entail.

Among them, the strategic stockpiling plan for Bitcoin has drawn particular attention, and it seems related to that. Inauguration day is the 20th.

If such announcements are viewed positively, funds are expected to flow into the cryptocurrency market, but we cannot know for sure until then, so I feel it is necessary to watch things cautiously (there is no absolute certainty).

By the way, during last year's U.S. presidential election, I expected the market to surge if Trump won, so entering funds before that would be a way to ride the trend. Of course, I anticipated that, but I did not go as far as to commit large amounts of funds due to the high risk involved. Information was mixed up until the last moment, and Japanese media tended to show Trump as stronger than Biden rather than X vs Trump, which caused some discrepancies in coverage.

As a result, Trump won and the prediction of $100,000 by year's end was reached all at once. Since nothing is certain, I think it is wise to understand the big trend and maintain risk management so you can respond whichever way things go.

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(This article has been distributed since 2016)