How long will the risk-off continue!? ~ Highlights and schedule for November 21 ~

◎Today's Highlights

1)Italy's Budget and European Commission Sanctions

Today, the 21st, the European Commission is expected to announce sanctions against Italy's budget. Will they truly impose sanctions? How large will the sanctions be? All eyes are on this.

Additionally, Italy's original aim is to weaken the pro-EU side. Since it is a stepping stone for next year's European Parliament elections, attention is also on how EU member states will react to the EC's response.

2)Worldwide Sharp Stock Declines and Risk-Off

Stock prices worldwide have fallen sharply, the VIX has risen, crude oil prices have fallen sharply, signaling a typical risk-off environment.

In Japan and Europe, is the Caron (Ghosn) shock, in the US, are stock declines centered on FAANG (Facebook, Netflix, Apple, Amazon) the cause of risk-off!?

How long will the stock declines continue? How long will the decline in crude oil prices continue? This is in focus.

Also, while the decline in crude oil prices explains the CAD drop, the USD is rising. In risk-off, it is expected that the dollar, yen, and franc are bought, but it feels odd that the US dollar is being bought while US stocks have fallen this much. This discrepancy could become a trading opportunity, so I will be paying attention.

3)Drop in Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices have fallen to the 53-dollar range. How far will the fall in oil prices go? It is in focus.

Since the year’s intraday lows have been updated, it looks like it might briefly approach 50 dollars. The 50-dollar level could act as a major psychological support. If the price breaks below this line at 50 dollars, a large drop may occur, so attention is required.

4)British Politics and Brexit Negotiation Plan

Recent reports suggested a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister May could be filed within 48 hours, and if it is filed, it might come today. However, there is also information that the required number of signatures for a no-confidence vote is not met.

Even if a no-confidence motion appears, it is believed unlikely that May's ouster would succeed.

Even if she survives the no-confidence vote, convincing Parliament of the provisional Brexit agreement will be difficult. Attention is on how this will be overcome.

◎Today's Event Schedule

11/21 (Wednesday)

22:30 USDDurable Goods and Core Durable Goods Orders
22:30 CAD Wholesale Sales

00:15 GBPCarney Speaks as Bank of England Governor
00:30 USDCrude Oil Inventories