Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [December 31]
Happy New Year!
I look forward to your continued support this year as well.
By the end of the year, the number of article purchasers has been increasing. In other words, more people are becoming interested in cryptocurrencies.
Because the market is also rising, I would like to make articles that are useful even if just a little.
As for Bitcoin, since late December there has not been much noticeable movement worldwide due to Christmas holidays, and trading has been light.
In January, with the birth of the Trump administration, there is talk about whether they will issue some statement regarding cryptocurrencies.
The Trump administration's personnel choices this time are quite cryptocurrency-friendly, so that area is also under close watch.
The price of Bitcoin is located at around 93,000 to 104,000 USD in the range of the listing period, at the lower end of about 93,000 USD.
In other words, it is at the bottom price of the range.
However, with the weak yen, in Japanese yen it is around 14.7 million yen. When viewed in yen, even the bottom of the range feels high.
Looking back at 2024, EthereumL2’s optimism airdrop was received, and later in 2016 holdings Ripple’s (XRP) reached 4,000 yen. Ripple had recorded 4,000 yen in 2017, but not all was sold then. However, in the subsequent bubble its price performance was weak, and for the first time it rose to the 2017 level this time.
I did not have high expectations for Ripple, and I didn’t buy it, I just held it, so I personally consider it lucky for an unexpected uptick. There are older currencies such as Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash, but despite high market capitalization they do not feel very impressive.
Personally, Ethereum and EthereumL2 range’s price performance lagged, while other currencies I hold have risen sharply.
Again, AI, RWA, and stablecoins. These seem to be the keywords here.
Also, there was a statement from economist Yusuke Narita as follows.
“Bitcoin, only 15 years since its birth, has a market cap exceeding 300 trillion yen. Even Tokyo’s high-rise apartments, pure gold, and Apple stock cannot match its growth rate. It is one of the most profitable assets and startups in human history. It is astonishing that such a miracle is not understood by many people, including politicians.” — Narita
Does that mean trust in fiat currencies is shaking to such an extent?
Since Bitcoin was born in 2009, its system, the blockchain, has been running without rest. The high reliability of that system, its scarcity, and its digital nature are major factors, I feel.
◯ Outlook for Ethereum in 2025
I will introduce Ethereum from an article featured on CoinDesk.
Among my holdings, Ethereum is the largest. I gradually increased my assets when it dropped to about 5,000 yen during the 2020 Covid shock, and since then have steadily grown my holdings. Recently I have been selling a little rather than buying.
Below is a summary
・With the Merge upgrade, staking becomes easier and the burden is reduced
・Under a Trump administration, Ethereum ETF staking may become possible
・A stablecoin supporting Ethereum, tokenization, AI agents
・Expansion of Layer 2, restaking, and the rise of better DApps
Those are not appearing to be the case.
Because Ethereum inevitably involves diverse transactions through apps, it is closely related to regulation. Therefore, I think if regulation progresses under a Trump administration, its presence could grow significantly.
◯ Will 100 million yen be needed for retirement assets?
The retirement pension of 20 million yen, 2,000万 problem, 5 years to 1 hundred million yen article appeared in Daily Shincho.
What will happen 10 years from now?
Whether there will be no retirement concept and we keep working until we die or continue increasing assets.
Nevertheless, I feel opportunities may turn up in such a direction somewhere.
That said, it is complicated whether the whole of Japan will become poor...
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Yen, unexpectedly4 years of continuous depreciation, the widening interest rate gap keeps selling the yen growing-Nihon Keizai Shimbun
In 2024, the USD/JPY rate fell for the fourth consecutive year, reaching the longest streak on record. By the end of 2023, many market participants expected “yen appreciation in 2024.” The historical yen depreciation level is because the interest rate gap between Japan and the US does not narrow — Nikkei newspaper
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(This article has been distributed since 2016)
