Global risk incidents on the rise—let's pay attention to risk! ~ Highlights and schedule for November 19 ~
◎ Today's Highlights
1) Movements in Britain
Last weekend, four ministers resigned in the UK, and the pound fell sharply. In Britain, politics is said to move on Sundays, and yesterday the successors to the resigned ministers were announced.
In such unstable British politics, the May administration is on the edge of a cliff. Within the ruling party, there are plans to change the party leader (leadership challenge) and signatures are being gathered. Still, is there anyone who wants to become prime minister at this time? It is questionable. Today too, UK politics is expected to move significantly on statements from key figures.
2) Movements in Europe
Last week Italy did not agree to the budget revisions. In response, the EU is expected to issue comments by the 21st, but until then we expect statements about Italy.
First of all, Italy does not intend to push through the budget! There are also reports that it is using the budget as a shield to stir Europe and encourage the rise of far-right parties. Caution is needed for the rise of far-right parties as well.
3) Crude oil prices and the U.S. dollar
Crude oil prices have fallen sharply. The causes lie in both demand and supply, but we will be watching how far they drop.
For the market... for resource-producing countries it is a blow, but for oil-importing countries costs decrease. The United States, which benefits from rising stock prices, is both an oil producer and an oil consumer. We will pay attention to how much the oil price drop affects stock prices. Also, because of risks in Europe, the UK, and oil price declines, risk-off is tilting, so we will monitor how far risk-off progresses.
WTI Crude Oil price daily chart
Dollar Index hourly chart
While the euro and the pound are being sold, the U.S. dollar has also been sold in recent days. Looking at the dollar index, the dollar has weakened. It has fallen below the key level “77.00.” We will watch whether it can rebound from here.
From the daily chart of the Dollar Index below, having surpassed the recent high, this could be viewed as a corrective move. If it is a correction, I would like to see it reverse and rise without breaking below 76.00. Personally, I expect dollar demand to persist through the year, so I think it will rise. I will also keep an eye on the Dollar Index.
Dollar Index daily chart
Dollar/Yen Buy Strategy! - Bold Forecast for Dollar/Yen This Year
◎ Today's Event Schedule
11/19 (Monday)
12:30 JPY Kuroda Bank of Japan Governor speaks
18:00 EUREuro area current account balance
11/20 (Tuesday)
00:45 USD Williams, President of the New York Fed speaks
09:30 AUDRBA monetary policy meeting minutes
◎ Weekly Schedule
Stormy expectations in the UK and Europe! - Highlights and schedule for the week of November 19
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