Watch the movement of USD/JPY from 13:00 today and take a break at 15:00
USD/JPY 1-hour chart
Yesterday it did not come down to the orange 0.382 retracement line and rose
The dollar is strong, isn’t it
It’s Christmas and volume is thin, with low volatility
Today I’m hoping for a pullback from the following two factors
・US 10-year Treasury yield falls
・There may be hawkish remarks in Governor Ueda’s speech
US 10-year Treasury yield 1-hour chart
It has dropped sharply recently
At this yield level, the most recent USD/JPY was around 156.9
Will it reach this level by midday today?
The 0.382 retracement is also close
Next, Governor Ueda’s remarks
Last year the meeting started at 13:00
Will it be the same this year?
Looking at that, if it drops before 15:00, I’d like to pick it up
Avoiding US government shutdown risk, USD higher due to rising US rates
PCE core deflator fell short of market expectations
and government shutdown risk increased
causing last Friday’s NY market to
weirdly weaken the dollar, and at the start of the week
to reflect the rise in US rates straightforwardly
a day of dollar strength
Today, the 25th, the world’s markets except Tokyo are
open, and after 15:30
trading cannot occur, so be careful.
The market is hoping for a Santa Claus rally,
and if risk-on occurs,
USD/JPY and cross-yen will remain firm.
As yesterday’s fixing was high at 157.39 yen
dollar demand around year-end and New Year remains active.
This week USD/JPY seems likely to stay firm,
but Governor Ueda’s remarks today are of concern
Last year it started at 13:00, so
watch the movement before 15:00 and then take a break.
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