Dollar/Yen: A full-fledged festival (the yen depreciation challenge) starts from the week after next

USD/JPY 15-minute chart

Yesterday, as expected, a drop after around 10 o'clock

With weak PCE data, it accelerated further
and pushed toward around 156.0 near the 0.382 Fibonacci level we hoped for

Also the Christmas holiday weekend, so I expected some position adjustments

Would long positions be closed as they hunt for dollar buying at the Goto-day Tokyo close?
I thought so

PCE also provided a good catalyst

The market moves on expectations,
but the key is the movement of taking profits and stop losses

Now forming a double bottom and rising
There may still be movement back to 155.56, a 50% retracement
Has the move to take profits weakened?

To be frank
Yesterday morning, at the line I showed, there was a rebound and a consolidation that traders were watching
and it is understandable

A good line was drawn

When viewed on the 1-hour chart, it looks like this
There are wicks, you know
Counter-trend trades target this level
In other words, aiming for an overshoot during the trend

When viewed on the 4-hour chart
Long-term GMMA is pointing up
In the short term, there might be a rebound and rise here or it may stay in a range for a while

Near the green half retracement line
the black 25-MA is also nearby, making a thick wall

Calm before the festival? A quiet market before Christmas

The FOMC was hawkish,
the BOJ was dovish, and with these results
yesterday's USD/JPY surged

Yesterday it touched 157.90 and made a new high
but afterward profit-taking selling pushed it down
and pressured it down

Next week is Christmas.

So it was a position adjustment before that

During Christmas, liquidity is extremely thin,
and on the 25th, only Japan opens worldwide
which is a unique situation,
so many traders might have been looking to take profits for now

A return to the 157 yen area after a long time
led to comments from Finance Minister Kato and
Finance Secretary Mimura, who spoke to deter yen weakness
but given the content of their statements
it does not seem to indicate a critical yen weakness situation

Will the real festival (yen weakness challenge) start the following week?