I have a bullish view on USD/JPY but I’d like a pullback to around 153.30.
Dollar/Yen 15-minute chart
In the short term, it seems it may create a temporary pullback
This is the 1-hour chart
Long-term GMMA is rising
Will it come to the black 25-period moving average line or the recent rebound line?
The half-line of the daily chart is 152.631
Before the FOMC, surely it won’t come to this level?
But you never know what lies ahead in the market
Policy of the FOMC and the Bank of Japan
The Bank of Japan will inevitably align its timing with changes in the U.S. policy
and set it against the U.S. timing
so that
when the U.S. is cutting rates, it makes sense
If the U.S. does not cut rates and the BOJ raises rates alone
the impact will still be small
As for the U.S., there is still a 4.75% range of rate cuts available
There is quite a lot of ammunition left
On the other hand, for Japan, almost none of this rate-hiking ammunition remains
Even if they say it would be 1%,
we are currently at 0.25%, so only three more moves remain
Whether those three moves can be made
Each move carries increasingly heavy weight
Therefore, ideally, Japan would like to act at the same time as the U.S. policy change
Hence, there is talk that perhaps the BOJ might not move in December this time
There is even speculation that perhaps the U.S. might not either
I want to believe, but I also have some doubts
“If the BOJ’s rate hike is postponed, maybe the FMC’s rate cut could be postponed as well
to be postponed as well?”
From the statements of participants before the FOMC blackout, such thoughts arise
This evening, I will let my imagination run based on tonight’s and tomorrow’s index releases
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