Attention on European risk and crude oil price decline risk! ~Key points and schedule for November 15~
◎Today's Highlights
1) Italy Budget Proposal and Brexit Agreement
Yesterday, the pound rose as Brexit agreement passed with broad support among British ministers. The euro also rose on a continued high. However, the budget proposal is negative for the euro. The European Commission is expected to announce measures on the 21st. Once key figures speak about the measures, the euro is likely to react with fluctuations. For the pound, even if ministers' approval is obtained, the main test is the UK Parliament. The focus is on how the Ireland border issue is resolved! Pay attention to the contents and reactions of relevant officials.
Ireland Border Issue – The Most Difficult Point in Brexit Negotiations –
2)Crude Oil Prices
Yesterday, oil prices rebounded. They did not fall for a 13th straight day. However, the heads remain heavy. The oversupply behind the oil price decline has not yet produced concrete measures despite production cut talks. In the meantime, as oil prices declined, U.S. gasoline prices dropped sharply. Is yesterday's oil price rise a corrective bounce or has it bottomed out? We are watching closely.
Additionally, I want to note the impact of the oil price decline on U.S. stock prices and the level of the Canadian dollar.
Oil Prices and Canadian Dollar, Reverse Trade Preparation! – Strategy for November 14 –
3)Where the U.S. dollar is headed
Yesterday's U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) came in as expected (slightly revised lower). Today, retail sales and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index are to be released. USD/JPY has not been able to break through the 114 level. According to orders on OANDA and Forex.com, there are many sell orders above 114. Therefore, it struggles to break above 114 and tends to retreat quickly. The question is whether it can break through today or tomorrow. If it cannot break through here, downside pressure may lead to a pullback. Since there are no U.S. indicators tomorrow, will retail sales or the Philadelphia Fed release allow a breakthrough today? Will Powell’s comments on the Federal Reserve allow a breakout? I will be watching closely.
◎Today's Event Schedule
11/15 (Thursday)
ASEAN Summit
09:30 AUD Nonfarm Payrolls・ Unemployment Rate
16:45 EUR France GDP
17:30 SEK Sweden Unemployment Rate
18:30 GBP Retail Sales
19:00 EUR Euro Area Trade Balance
21:15 EUR Draghi ECB President Speech
22:10 EUR Plank ECB Executive Director Speech
22:30 USD Retail Sales・ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
23:35 EUR De Guindos ECB Vice-President Speech
11/16 (Friday)
00:00 USD Quarles Fed Vice-Chairman Testimony (Senate)
03:00 USD Bostic Atlanta Fed President Speech
04:00 MXN Mexico Policy Rate Announcement
05:00 USD Kashkari Minneapolis Fed President Speech
06:30 NZD Manufacturing PMI
◎ Weekly Schedule
◎ Records Room
↓↓↓ Yesterday's stock prices, long-term interest rates, and key official remarks are summarized below ↓↓↓
November 14 Records Room – Stocks, Rates, and Officials' Comments –
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