Dollar/yen pullback target challengers, go for 152.30?
This is the USD/JPY 15-minute chart
What was the news regarding the Bank of Japan yesterday evening like～
The Bank of Japan repeatedly leaks before policy meetings
I feel anger at the gap with the United States
In other words, I think those who know in advance from the news are making huge profits
Yesterday, during steady scalping profits, there was a sudden drop and then a surge
So-called back-and-forth slap in the face?
“What happened—war, perhaps?” and long positions suddenly got stopped out
Later, thinking the rebound from the decline was profit-taking, I entered a short and got forced out
Since it surged, I told the Consultation Lab that “long positions will be borrowed for CPI”
I initially said it might drop, but
it turned out to be exactly that
However,
The market seems to be pricing in no rate hike by the BoJ
Today, can it stay in the 152 yen area
Looking at the 4-hour chart
In a W-bottom formation in an uptrend
Looking at the 1-hour chart
There is a wall near around 152.30 on the red line
Whether it can break here and push to the orange 0.382 Fibonacci level
The green line is the half retracement
Bloomberg reports yen volatility
Before the US CPI release, but Bloomberg says
“The BoJ will not rush a rate hike, and may postpone this month
Inflation acceleration risk is low – sources”
When this is reported, the dollar-yen briefly hits 151.00
After the drop, it surged to 152.80
The drop to 151.00 briefly occurred because
Some policy board members proposed raising rates at the December meeting
and there seemed to be a stance of not opposing
despite that sentence?
Overall, the inflation risk appears small, so next week’s
BoJ policy meeting likely to be no rate hike
highly likely, according to the market.
The yen had seemed to rise a bit, but if the following week’s
news and I-coverage repeat this,
the prospect of rate hikes seems to have faded
However, I do not believe it
Would rates rise if the FOMC doesn’t push the yen higher?
CPI results were as expected
[US] Consumer Price Index (CPI) Month-over-Month for November [0.2%]
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.3%
[US] CPI Year-over-Year for November [2.6%]
Forecast: 2.7%
Actual: 2.7%
[US] CPI Core Index Month-over-Month for November [0.3%]
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.3%
[US] CPI Core Index Year-over-Year for November [3.3%]
Forecast: 3.3%
Actual: 3.3%
After range of 140–160, breaking 160 could lead to further
yen weakness.
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