12/11 USDJPY Tonight's CPI target pullback aiming first at 151.67
Good morning
This is the USD/JPY 15-minute chart
The dollar is strong, isn’t it?
What was the drop in the U.S. employment statistics?
Perhaps it was a trigger for those who want to unwind positions?
When I imagine that, might it become a trigger to sell tonight's CPI as well?
There seems to be selling pressure to adjust positions before then
The imagination won’t stop, but the 1-hour GMMA is currently upward
The 15-minute has short-term declined
The 5-minute is turning up from a downward trend as I write this
Looking at the 1-hour chart
The first target is
151.628, perhaps?
Since the 200 MA line and the half retracement line coincide at 151.0,
it should act as a strong barrier
If it comes, even in the short term I will target a rebound here
If it breaks, it will fall sharply
Is that energy tonight's CPI?
The swings in AUD
At the meeting of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party,
a more proactive fiscal policy and “moderately lax”
monetary policy will be implemented
The expression “moderately lax” had not been used since 2010
after the Lehman Shock
has led to expectations that
very strong economic measures will be implemented,
the AUD surged,
and the USD/JPY also rose sharply as a risk-on move.
As a result, the AUD/JPY rose by nearly 2.3 yen in an astonishing move
However, with no concrete policies decided,
such a move is excessive. A correction selling from the highs dropped about 1.3 yen.
The RBA’s policy announcement was as expected unchanged, but
the wording that policy “needs to be sufficiently restrictive”
was removed, implying rate cuts from February onward
and the AUD fell immediately after the announcement.
Ahead of today’s US CPI, US yields are rising and the dollar is generally
strengthening, but the CPI surprises are diminishing
and if this pace continues, US yields may gradually decline
The US 10-year yield on the hourly chart
As we head into next year, a return-reversal strategy for USD/JPY and cross pairs may be good.
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