After looking at unemployment rate, the employment statistics suggest a sell-on-rally strategy; will it reach up to 151.8?
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
This is a mean-reversion shorting strategy
We aim for a rise that occurs after breaking the downtrend flag
Will it turn back down around 151.230?
We judge by whether it reaches around 151.835 or by the momentum of a breakout of the channel line
As much as possible without getting caught
We wait until we can observe a chart pattern of a short
If we can enter well on the upside, we watch for the breakout of the red and green lines
We pyramid and accumulate positions
Looking at the 15-minute chart
First, we wait for a short-term blue line break
From a weekly view
Last week ended with a large bearish candle followed by a bullish candle with wicks up and down
Range around 150 yen continues with battles
A slight upward move followed by a decline is anticipated
From the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield on the 1-hour chart, similar moves are anticipated
Employments data caused a temporary spike, though
The employment report seems to have focused on the unemployment rate
This month, expectations of cuts at the FOMC are strengthening?
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Change (month-over-month) (Nov) [122,000]
Forecast: 200,000
Actual: 227,000
【U.S.】 Unemployment Rate (Nov) [4.1%]
Forecast: 4.2%
Actual: 4.2%
【U.S.】 Average Hourly Earnings, YoY (Nov) [4.0%]
Forecast: 3.9%
Actual: 4.0%
【U.S.】 Average Hourly Earnings, MoM (Nov) [0.4%]
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.4%
As a result, it turned to a decline
However, after the University of Michigan index release, U.S. officials’ remarks also provided downward support, leading to a rise
In recent weeks, the yen has been drawing attention
but the yen has already strengthened considerably.
Currently it is in a consolidation phase, so for USD/JPY and cross pairs
a rebound is a favorable environment for buying back
After the release, we expect the yen to remain in a strengthening trend
This is a return-to-sell situation
Next week, if CPI prompts a strong rise, we will target selling
We would like to see the 151-yen level
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