I fully envisioned the dollar-yen for the beginning of next week
This is the USD/JPY 15-minute chart
Is a falling knife starting to roll?
It looks like it may form a flag and rise
There is a thick wall near 149.94 on the blue line
I’m assuming there will be a rebound and drop here
If a breakout to the upside occurs, viewed on the daily chart
It might aim for around 150.233 near the 0.382 fib
On the daily chart, if the decline continues, 148.175 would be the retracement line
Around 150.233 there is the red 200MA as well, so the wall seems strong
Four-hour chart
GMMA is in a downtrend
150.233 is the most recent high,
If this breaks and rises, it could go higher
One-hour chart
Short-term resistance level is near 149.94 on the blue line
This might be a good spot to target a short scalp
Also considered is a five-minute chart
In the short term, a shape of a long from a major bottom could form
After a rise forming a flag (purple channel)
there could be a sharp drop from around the blue line
Trend read from the chart
Looking at it with a different view, on the four-hour chart
After a strong downward pressure emerged
the pressure is gradually easing
Right now we are mid-wave 3
Another drop could occur
Even if it rises,
the pressure may become even smaller
(Numbers are for reference, please interpret as an image)
Tokyo Metropolitan Area CPI, 2.2%, above expectations
The Tokyo CPI rose to
2.2%, beating the expected 2.1%,
leading to dollar selling and yen buying
Black Friday the day after Thanksgiving in the US,
usually a thin, uneventful market
turns out to be volatile
Even before the data release, the USD/JPY had been breaking down
there is speculation that the leak of information may have occurred
is circulating
This is something that could happen in Japan
Immediately at the release, there was a flood of selling,
and it seems odd for the moves of overseas traders who should be resting
somehow suspicious
At the BOJ policy meeting next month,
the possibility of additional rate hikes
is rising
The Overnight Index Swap (OIS), reflecting market expectations for policy,
prices in about a 60% chance of a December rate hike,
about an 80% chance by January next year
The main driver of USD/JPY selling is overseas players.
They have accumulated
long USD/JPY positions and are now closing them
and turning into outright shorts
With a new president and new finance minister decided,
the dollar is being sold,
perhaps this is a new trend
It was a Saturday filled with various fantasies
Looking forward to next week
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