U.S. Treasury Secretary Nominee VS Ukraine Situation, But Dollar Rises?
Dollar/Yen daily chart
It is still within an uptrend channel
However, since the market ahead is unknown,
if a drop occurs due to fundamentals such as the Ukraine situation
a steep decline near 153.578 is also possible
If that level breaks, a move toward 150.759 is also anticipated
Four-hour chart
A triangle consolidation
First, see which direction the breakout occurs
On the hourly chart, even if it breaks, there is a possibility of a rebound around 154.0
Would the Trump administration’s policies lift the dollar and the December FOMC’s rate cut be skipped?
That is the pressure for a stronger dollar
and the Bank of Japan’s possible rate hikes could lead to yen strength concerns
creating a tug-of-war, so the range of 154.0–156.0 may continue
Even if the triangle consolidates, a rebound around 154.0 and 156.0 is also expected
However, if it breaks upward from the uptrend channel, 157 yen range is also possible
At the start of the week
I am concerned about the sharp drop toward the end of last week
I think it may be due to the Ukraine situation
Domestic FX brokers are not connected to the interbank market, so
they ended higher
Trump names Betsent (Bessent) as next Treasury Secretary
On the 22nd, President-elect Trump announced that Scott Bessent, who runs the macro hedge fund management company Key Square Group, will be named the next Treasury Secretary
Bessent has publicly supported currency policy rebalancing but does not pursue a straightforward dollar-weakness strategy,
and has said that the U.S. authorities’ response to inflation acceleration in 2021 was
too slow,
and he has criticized the large rate cut last September
How will the market view this?
Dollar strength ahead?
There could be a sharp drop in the latter half of the week with data releases
This weekend is end-of-month; if it rises, there will be rebalancing adjustments and
position adjustments may trigger a steep drop in USDJPY
but it will likely end with a bullish candlestick
Could it fall to 152 yen?
USDJPY monthly chart
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