Attention turns from the United States to Europe! ~Key points and schedule for November 9~

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◎ Today's Highlights

1）Brexit negotiations

The pound is being bought on expectations of an agreement in Brexit negotiations. Early in the week, Prime Minister May tried to explain the Brexit plan to British MPs to gain understanding and support, but could not secure it. She is apparently set to explain it to MPs again over the weekend. Depending on the content, there is a possibility of an optional November EU summit.

If the November EU summit is held, the pound is expected to rise sharply, but if parliamentary support is not obtained, the pound is expected to fall sharply. I will watch Brexit negotiation headlines closely.

2）European risks

Italy and Europe appear to have a deviation in GDP forecasts. Since the budget deficit is viewed as a percentage of GDP, if GDP forecast is revised down, the budget must be reduced. Also, Italy has been asked to revise the budget by the 13th.

Beyond the budget, European risks include the rise of far-right parties. As next year is an election year, far-right parties in various countries are starting to move. Cross-border far-right party cooperation is being brokered by Steve Bannon.

We will monitor how much risk is priced in and stay attentive.

3）Fifty-day factor and weekend factor

Today is effectively a fifty-day (fiftieth day). Also, it is the weekend after major events. Please watch the market close and the London Fix.

4）Oceania currencies and oil prices

Oil prices have fallen sharply. It is said that increasing oil production by various countries due to concerns about Iran sanctions may be the cause. The risk-off factors and the fall in commodity prices affect commodity currencies. After the midterm elections, Oceania currencies have risen in a risk-on environment, but can they continue to rise? Or will they reverse and fall? Or will they range? I will pay attention.

◎ Today's Event Schedule

11/9 (Friday)

09:30　AUDRBA Quarterly Financial Statement
10:30　CNY　China CPI (Consumer Price Index)
16:00　NOK　Norway CPI (Consumer Price Index)
17:00　CZK　Czech CPI (Consumer Price Index)
18:00　GBPGDP (MoM) (Q/Q Flash) and Industrial Production
20:00　GBP　NIESR GDP Forecast
22:30　USD　PPI (Producer Price Index)
23:00　USDQuarles (Vice Chair, Fed) speaking

11/10 (Saturday)

00:00　USD　University of Michigan Consumer Confidence
03:00　USD　Baker Hughes Rig Count

11/11 (Sunday)

US-Russia summit