While the dollar is strong, there is a possibility of a sharp drop in USD/JPY around 13:45
The USD/JPY 15-minute chart
In a downtrend, it has retraced to Fibonacci 0.216
Looking at the 1-hour chart, within the downtrend
It has retraced to the half-level after pulling back to the 0.618 Fibonacci of the recent rise
The RSI is about to turn upward
On the 4-hour chart
There seems to still be upward pressure
On the daily chart
GMMA is pointing upward, but Friday’s candlestick indicates a strong decline, serving as a key reversal
Technically, a downward trend reversal is possible
However,
last week, despite strong US data and a strong dollar
the USD/JPY plunged at the end of the week
Dollar index 4-hour chart
Perhaps the Trump trade has cooled down,
With talk of skipping December rate hikes by the FOMC and policy under the Trump administration
Concerns about renewed inflation leading to dollar strength
The BOJ may move to cut rates earlier?
Or
There may be a sense of position adjustments selling on Friday
This week also includes expectations for a rise in USD/JPY from short covering
For two weeks in a row, the weekend is a ceiling
This week too could rise toward the weekend
In the short term
All eyes on today’s Ueda's remarks as BOJ Governor and his appearance at the Finance and Economic Council and the subsequent press conference
If he makes hawkish comments about rate hikes
the yen would strengthen dramatically and the USD/JPY would plunge
If that happens, breaking 153.426 would target a decline toward 152.485
If he ends doveishly
With rising US 10-year yields,
there would be gradual dollar buying from London time,
and USD/JPY would rise
US 10-year yield 1-hour chart
In that case, could 155.0 be a key level?
In the short term
The fundamentals will outweigh the technicals, so it depends on Governor Ueda
Speech around 10:00, press conference at 13:45
This week too there are economic indicators, so we may see a roller coaster
I’ll try to scalp and capture profits
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