Start of the US midterm elections! ~ Highlights and schedule for November 6 ~
◎ Today's Highlights
1) U.S. Midterm Elections
This week's main focus is the start of the midterm elections. The key point is the number of seats in the House of Representatives. In the latest polls, the Democrats are favored. With the world watching midterm elections, the markets are broadly indecisive. We don't know the outcome of the elections, but once this risk event ends, I think market movement will begin. Therefore, I would also like to check the状況 of other currencies in line with the midterms.
For midterm elections, we have summarized the following.
Right before the U.S. midterms! Summary of the midterms.
2)Brexit Negotiations
Over the weekend, after Prime Minister May revealed the Brexit proposal, the pound has risen. It is expected that this proposal will be presented to British MPs for understanding, perhaps around today. Will they accept it or oppose it? If there are indications, the pound is likely to move significantly. Personally, I think the line of 1.300 for GBP/USD is a benchmark. If there are concerns about Brexit negotiations, the outlook improves and the pound may rise; if the probability of a no-deal Brexit increases, it may break below 1.300. I will watch speeches and the pound's situation closely.
GBP/USD Daily Chart
3)Italy Budget and European Easing Policy
Italy's budget is awaiting revision, but after statements that revisions would not be accepted, a stalemate has followed. Then last weekend's ECB information on TLTRO appeared. Some agencies have not confirmed it, so we cannot be certain, but there is speculation that it is related to Italy's budget. Perhaps negotiations between Italy and the European Commission are happening behind the scenes. I want to focus on the budget and Europe's response.
About “TLTRO” is summarized below.
“LTRO” and “TLTRO” — ECB Easing Measures Now! ~ FX Terminology Explanation ~
4)NZ Employment
The New Zealand government has set a dual mandate of inflation and employment in its central bank reform. Therefore, employment data may gain more attention. The release is upcoming. Also, pay attention to the NZD level. Over the past three months, it has approached a restrained resistance line. With tomorrow's employment data, will it break higher or fall again? I am watching closely.
NZD/JPY Daily Chart
◎ Today's Economic Event Schedule
11/6 (Tuesday)
U.S. Midterm Elections
EU Finance Ministers' Council
12:30 AUDPolicy Rate and Statement Release
16:30 EURPratt ECB Executive Director Speaking
20:15 EURClare ECB Executive Director Speaking
21:00 EURLautenschläger ECB Executive Director Speaking
11/7 (Wednesday)
03:00 USD 10-Year Treasury Bond Auction
06:45 NZD unemployment rate and employment change
◎ Weekly Schedule and Highlights
◎ Records Room
Yesterday's stock prices, interest rates, and key figures' remarks are summarized below.
November 6 Records Room — Stock Prices, Rates, and Key Remarks
