Employment statistics are a temporary milestone; USD/JPY heading towards 155 yen?
This is the USD/JPY 15-minute chart
The U.S. employment report seemed to be merely a milestone within the upward trend of USD/JPY
Buyback of dollars, sold during month-end rebalancing, is dominant
Employment data
【US】 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, MoM (Oct) [+254,000]
Forecast: +113,000
Actual: +12,000
【US】 Unemployment Rate (Oct) [4.1%]
Forecast: 4.1%
Actual: 4.1%
【US】 Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Oct) [+0.4%]
Forecast: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4%
【US】 Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Oct) [+4.0%]
Forecast: 4.0%
Actual: 4.0%
The softness in U.S. payrolls was somewhat anticipated due to powerful hurricanes and large-scale strikes affecting the data
to some extent
For a moment the market wavered and fell, but regained composure
and rose, viewing it as temporary
This is the USD/JPY daily chart
It is now in an uptrend
It resembles a pattern from the five ironclad guidelines for long positions
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/54321?via=users
The possibility of 155 yen coming into view around the presidential election, right?
Employment data is merely a milestone
Yesterday’s Nikkei Average fell 1,027 yen.
The Nasdaq plunged by 2.76%,
and Governor Ueda cited a weaker yen as a reason
for hinting at rate hikes
However, the USD/JPY did not drop and instead
rebounded.
With only modest rate hikes, it seems increasingly difficult to change the yen’s trend
to some extent
The plunge after July’s rate hike was because there were many long positions in USD/JPY
and now that is not the case
With the U.S. presidential election looming,
there was a move to close positions before a big event
that appeared to be the ahead-of-time move
The 31st also seems to have a large month-end rebalancing component
Sell stocks, buy U.S. Treasuries,
the dollar was sold especially against the yen
The sense that Trump’s victory was already priced in remains, and
even after the win (the so-called) Trump trade
likely will not continue.
If the Republicans lose the House, the situation would change entirely.
Because of such factors, position adjustments were prioritized, but
the employment data could have been a trigger for further movement
but it seems not
Strategy for next week will be sent out tomorrow
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