Assuming a rise while USD/JPY stays in the 153 yen range
USD/JPY 1-hour chart
Rally after the election with a gap
This is unexpected
It seems to be buying influenced by the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan's surge and expectations of a coalition government
(It also feels like a post-hoc rationale)
Perhaps since the coalition expectation failed, a pullback to the 0.618 Fibonacci level was formed and then a rebound
(Filling the gap and rising is a common theme)
GMMA (Guppy Multiple Moving Average) is also pointing upward; a rise around the 53‑yen range near a 153.130 area, maintaining a bid near the recent high
If this wall is broken, the short-term outlook becomes bearish
Also
If it’s ultra-short term, it looks like this
LDP and Komeito fall below majority, surprising stock highs and yen weakness
In the House of Representatives election,
the ruling LDP and Komeito were pushed below a majority
Stocks initially seemed negative,
they fell before the open,
but rose after the open.
Coalition最likely to be formed is
the claim of the Komeito in terms of fiscal expansion,
which would lead to yen depreciation and stock price rises,
seems to have influenced perceptions
However, representative Tamaki firmly denied the coalition
A minority cabinet would be the most plausible scenario
If that happens, Japanese politics could become chaotic.
Stock prices may stay soft for a while
Ultimately, when policies advocated by Komeito are adopted
to move forward,
will that result in higher stocks and weaker yen?
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