Longer must-read! Dollar-yen next week's expectations
What I conveyed on the group chat yesterday
The flag of the channel on the 1-hour chart
was broken on the 15-minute chart
Yesterday's 1-hour chart
Is an uptrend finally starting?
If you break through 153.178 on the 4-hour chart, it will finally be a trend
It also serves as the basis for the expectation of aiming for 155 yen
In the meantime, I am concerned about tomorrow's election results and Middle East situation
Also, “with long positions assuming a stronger dollar having increased ‘significantly,’ City’s comment that ‘the numbers predicting Trump’s victory are approaching a peak, so it is prudent to take profits’ is noteworthy
Fundamentals exceed technicals,
On Monday, the dollar/yen
will look to go long in the short term even if it drops
will target short-term long positions on pullbacks during the rise
With the Lower House election approaching
The Lower House election will be held tomorrow
This time, a majority for the LDP and Komeito is not guaranteed
is expected, which could lead to volatility
The results and market reaction are expected as follows
(1) LDP majority (probability around 10%?)
There should be no market impact
Since some losses had already been priced in,
stock prices may rise
(2) Both LDP and Komeito have majority (probability around 40%?)
Market impact is not significant
(3) LDP and Komeito lose majority (probability around 30%)
Will they aim to realize a majority by publicly endorsing independents or unscrupulous lawmakers?
Prime Minister Ishiba will resign from responsibility.
A new prime minister will be elected, but
there is little time, so the vote will be among lawmakers only.
The policy direction will be decided by the newly elected prime minister. Kishida reappointment? Yoshimasa Hayashi perhaps?
There is a high likelihood of moving further away from Abenomics
There may be some upward pressure on the yen
depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election
(4) Major defeat of LDP and Komeito (probability around 20%)
Initially, stock prices fall and the yen strengthens
As a coalition partner search begins,
if the partner is the NipponMinshitsu (Democratic Party of Japan), the market will
calm down, potentially leading to higher stock prices and weaker yen
While this is happening
Israel announced on the 26th that it has conducted a “precise” attack on Iran's military targets
After the election results, how will the forex move on Monday?
If it falls, I might buy
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