Does the USD/JPY rise come after a brief stretch (dip) and rebound?
Early Morning Push-Back Imitation
USD/JPY 15-minute chart
Short term
149.944 Break Long
149.362 Break Short
On the 15-minute chart, the GMMAs are pointing down
Technical analysis also indicates a selling signal
If you look at the higher time frame
Weekly chart
Within the retracement resistance band, the bullish momentum is weakening (a bullish candle with a long upper wick)
The short-term GMMAs are bullish
Daily chart
Rising within the resistance band, forming a slow flag
The GMMAs are rising as well, but one concern is
If something triggers a break of the rising line, take-profit and stop-loss could cause a sharp drop
When viewed on the 4-hour chart, it looks like this—the width of higher highs is narrowing
In some scenarios, we may see a pullback to the early 147 yen range
On the 1-hour chart, I think it could resemble an orange line
If the 149.0 barrier is strong, a rebound could push to break 148.8 and target 150 again
Since the upside looks heavy, a substantial rise may require a big retracement first
Cautionary remarks from Minister of Finance Saito
U.S. retail sales came in strong,
In the U.S. market, USD/JPY rose above 150
In yesterday's Tokyo market, at the opening (9:00 a.m.),
right after, Minister Saito issued cautionary remarks,
(this disrupted the Tokyo afternoon fix strategy)
Unable to sustain the 150 range, it turned down,
but dollar buying at the pullback remained strong,
and after some back-and-forth around 150, it moved lower
Last week was a dollar-strength week; Friday tended to see position adjustments
There are no major economic indicators scheduled for the first half of this week
However, important political events are approaching
On the 27th is Japan's House of Representatives election, and on November 5th is the presidential election
With Trump and the Republicans gaining an advantage,
the “Trump trade” is once again being considered
Tariffs and tax cuts tend to push the dollar higher, and from this week onward also
we expect the dollar to remain firm
We anticipate a rise after a brief pullback
Longs, please wait for the pullback
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