Dollar/Yen: Will a W-shaped bottom form and drive a rise on Trump trade?
USD/JPY 15-minute chart: I will leave yesterday's breakout line in place
A rebound was observed at a key line, and the short-term rebound long position was successful
However, due to the time frame, it is painful to continue holding the long position as is
For those who cannot view the chart, if you want to set a trap, a conditional order is better
Now it looks as if it might rise with a W-bottom forming at 4 o'clock, but it is pulling back
Considering an upside scenario with an ascending triangle…
This is on the 1-hour chart
It can be viewed as a pullback after the breakout to the upside
If a W-bottom forms on the 1-hour chart, it may fall a bit more
I am also concerned that the RSI is heading down
(The 15-minute chart is rising, but
) There was a rebound after breaking through the S2 on the pivot line
When a trend emerges, it is also important to consider what the target is
Is it Fibonacci, MA, or pivot
We will check the lines many traders are watching
Today's pivot line will be communicated later together with option conditions via the telecom team
Disappointment in China’s economic measures has led to risk-off
NVIDIA hit a new high,
Nikkei Stock Average recovered to the long-awaited 40,000 level
However, profit-taking selling weighed on it, closing in the upper 39,000s
USD/JPY paused as export-related selling appeared,
as the afternoon session began and Chinese shares were sold off,
expectations for economic measures faded,
and that contributed to the Nikkei’s decline and the yen’s appreciation
Israel’s statement that it would not strike Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities
caused crude oil prices to plunge sharply,
which, along with lower US interest rates, became a downside factor for USD/JPY
The 150 yen level is seen as a key psychological level for now.
Also, crude oil longs by funds have accumulated,
and a bit more position adjustment could push prices lower.
If that happens, through a decline in US interest rates, there would be downside pressure on USD/JPY
However, the effect is likely to be limited
In parts of the market, moves are resurfacing that seem to price in Mr. Trump’s
presidential election victory,
so near term, Trump trade seems set to dominate.
Various factors are entangled,
and the currency market lacks a clear direction,
but volatility is likely to increase ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential election
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