If dollar/yen rises to 150, should I aim for a short position?
Last week it was a dollar-buying environment,
and there are points of concern.
Those are in the latter half, such as the US CPI and PPI,
where the dollar-selling environment has been taking shape,
in my impression.
As for the CPI results, by textbook thinking, one would expect dollar buying,
but
even so, expectations that rate cuts will be implemented as scheduled
have spread,
which is the reason for the eventual decline.
If that happens, would the USD/JPY also fall
and the yen strengthen?
When thinking about that, the BoJ rate hike is
still in the future, giving a sense of security,
so it isn’t necessarily a environment where yen strength is strong.
Therefore
the USD/JPY could continue rising toward around 150 yen
as some expect.
That said,
the upside is heavy
and around that area there may be a drop once
so it’s possible,
this week, a strategy that considers that area is important.
Regarding where the dollar/yen will rise to as mentioned recently,
I don’t think it will go that far, but since the market is uncertain,
I’ll also prepare for 152 yen as a scenario, but expect it to drop if it reaches the 150s.
Since there’s still room up to 150 yen, if you’re thinking of going long, a short-term trade might be okay, but
it might be better to wait for a drop and then go short,
and in that case I’ll ride this method.
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/54795?via=users_products
Actually, the recent jobs report was strong,
but the sense of employment strength doesn’t seem that great.
It seems that ahead of the presidential election, government-sector jobs are increasing rapidly
while the private sector is not as much.
After the election, in December government-sector employment fell
and January’s jobs data may worsen, possibly leading to a sharp dollar sell-off.
That might prompt someone to start a short position somewhere due to concerns about that,
perhaps around the 150-yen range?
In that case, I’ll wait for the crowd to short and ride the drop
as a swing trade.
This week, the 17th is a key point. If it rises then, maybe I’ll target a short position?
That’s what I’m thinking.
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