Unstoppable! Euro weakness and pound weakness — Highlights and schedule for October 31

◎ Today’s Highlights

1)Australia CPI (Consumer Price Index)

Today's releaseQuarterly CPI (Consumer Price Index)。 Following the United States, Canada, and Europe, it is expected that the next rate hike may come from Oceania. The most important factor in deciding the rate hike for the Aussie and Kiwi is the price index (rate of price increase). Given the high attention, there is a possibility of a fairly large movement.

2)Euro decline and European politics

Movements surrounding Italy’s budgetFor Italy, there is a stance of not complying with the budget revisions requested by the EU. In the meantime, Italy’s GDP was released and showed a weak result. It is negative for the euro. Also, today is scheduled a statement by the President of the ECB, the BISCO? Italy’s central bank governor. Will there be any remarks about Italy’s economy and budget? We are watching. Also, not necessarily leading to immediate euro selling, butWatch the developments in the Merkel government in Germanyclosely.

↓↓↓ For details on the budget, please refer to the following ↓↓↓

Moody’s rating release, Italy downgraded! ~ Explain FX, what is a rating ~

3)Global stock markets

Stocks had fallen sharply last week, but yesterday during the NY session, both US and Japanese stocks rose. Is this rise temporary? Or has the decline bottomed and will rebound from here? We are watching. A concern with stock declines is President Trump’s statements and actions. With midterms next week, Trump tends to say or do things that affect his approval rating.

Also to watch along with stocks is the dollar index. The dollar index has been rising. If this continues, we may hear criticisms of currency strength.

4)UK Brexit-related

Brexit discussions continue, but there is no clear progress. The fear of a no-deal Brexit has led to pound weakness. In the UK, companies are moving and preparing in anticipation of Brexit. Also, due to unclear Brexit details, some companies are unable to act, and it is said that the economy is weakening. Economic indicators have begun to show weak results. This week is scheduled “Super Thursday.” We will watch Brexit-related statements and headlines.

5)Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting

Expected to be quiet. No changes in monetary policy are anticipated. Attention is on the press conference, but there is nothing specifically noteworthy. If I had to say, I’m interested in whether the amount of easing program is on track as scheduled. At the BOJ, “silent tapering” is always a topic. In 2017, the intended easing amount was not reached. There are two months left in the year. I’m watching whether the planned amount will be reached.

※ Trade strategies using the highlights are summarized in another article.

◎ Today’s Highlights Event

10/31 (Wednesday)

09:30 AUDCPI (Consumer Price Index)
10:00 CNY China Manufacturing PMI
12:00 around time Bank of Japan policy rate announcement
15:30 JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda press conference
16:45 EUR France HICP (Consumer Price Index)
17:00 EUR Spain GDP
18:00 EURVoiced remarks by Novak? Austria central bank governor
18:00 EUR Hansen, Estonia central bank governor remarks
18:30 EURVisco Italy central bank governor remarks
19:00 EUR Italy HICP (Consumer Price Index)
19:00 EUR European unemployment rate & HICP (Consumer Price Index)
21:15 USDADP Employment Report
21:30 CADCanada GDP
23:30 USD Crude oil inventories

11/1 (Thursday)

05:15 CADPoloz - BOC Governor remarks
06:30 AUDManufacturing PMI
09:30 AUD Trade balance
10:45 CNYCaixin Manufacturing PMI

◎ Recording Room

Yesterday’s stock prices, long-term interest rates, and remarks by key figures are recorded below.

Recording of October 30 – Stocks, interest rates, and remarks