Deepen understanding of losing streaks and convergence [Mori Yuu]

Last week was a Short Festival. All-offer trades with 2 wins and 2 losses, +20 pips.

【10/23 Update】New Coin Toss Trade Rules Using Heikin-Ashi

■Currency Pairs and Time Frames
Display Heikin-Ashi on the Daily chart for GBP/JPY

■Trading RulesNEW!!
→ If the daily Heikin-Ashi is bullish, enter buy; if bearish, enter sell
→ Take profit at 60 pips, stop loss at 50 pips, set as OCO
→ Do not trade when the daily Heikin-Ashi is a doji or when the body is short

■Notes
・Do not hold more than 3 positions simultaneously
・Do not hold multiple positions in the same direction within 50 pips
・Trading occurs only once per day

■Other
・Within the article, “○ = profit taken,” “× = stop loss.”
・The initial trading rule is explained with, “Starting the coin toss trade I had been curious about for a long time”.Start of Coin Toss Trade You Might Have Been Curious About’”
・For the latest trading rules, please check the most recent article.
・This trade started from the rule of buying on the coin toss face and selling on the tail, but at a certain point the entries began to be decided by the color of the Heikin-Ashi. However, since it originated from the initial idea, the name Coin Toss remains unchanged.

・Back issues of this column are here(You will be redirected to FX攻略.com official site)

Kino Sato’s Yu method is now available in video!!

In this serial column, FX攻略.com editors interviewed Ms. Kino Sato about the method results. The animation at the bottom right of the image is Ms. Kino (why???). It’s a very simple method, so it’s easy to understand, but it’s especially clear when viewed in video.

◆ Public page here

・【Video】1 minute a day! Yu Kino’s recommended Heikin-Ashi super simple method

Coin Toss Trade Results: 10/22 Mon – 10/26 Fri

Monday, Oct 22

Heikin-Ashi was in a choppy state, so the trade was skipped.

Tuesday, Oct 23

Sell → ×

Wednesday, Oct 24

Sell → ○

Thursday, Oct 25

Sell → ×

Friday, Oct 26

Sell → ○

Cumulative performance after the rule change: 2 wins, 5 losses, −130 pips.

If more than half are a 6-run loss,

“Beraji-kun’s FX Blog” explains the probability of Y consecutive losses after making X trades.

Assuming my current method has a 50% win rate, after 100 trades the probability of 6 or more consecutive losses is reportedly over 55%. Knowing this helps prevent losing motivation during a streak.

The table summarizes win rates by category, so if you know your own win rate, it’s very helpful.

By the way, even a seemingly low-drawdown-looking logic can experience up to 9 consecutive losses.

Indeed, 200 tests are necessary

Furthermore, when examining win-rate convergence, if the number of trades is less than 200, it’s highly likely the rule hasn’t converged to its true probability. So you need 200 trades to validate it.

Recently, with rule changes that reduced profit-taking and stop-loss widths, position closures become faster. That suits my temperament better, doesn’t it?

Bonus

This Super Friday features strawberry cheesecake! A dessert-filled vibe and happy ^^

Kino Yu (Kizato Yu) Profile

An individual trader with 5+ years of FX experience. Studied various trading methods and analytical techniques through books and magazines. From scalping to swing trading, reached a current energy-efficient method. Simple trades during Tokyo session yield steady profits, yet the pursuit of improved precision continues. A music lover focused on punk and techno. Based in the Tohoku region.

Official site: Yu Kino’s Swap FX Life
twitter:https://twitter.com/KizatoFX

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