End of month and beginning of month bring many economic indicators! A week spotlighting indicators and stock prices ~ Key points and event schedule for the week of October 29 ~

◎ This Week's Highlights

1) Global Stock Decline

Last week, global stock prices were in the spotlight. In Europe, concerns around Italy’s budget are spreading, which may be a factor in European stock declines. Additionally, U.S., Japanese, and Chinese stocks are likely affected by trade wars and tariffs.President Trump's protectionist policies and tariff measures appear to be having an impact. Tariffs have increased costs for companies and begun to affect earnings. Even if this quarter's profits are solid, many firms are revising down forecasts for next year. As a result, earnings releases are contributing to stock price declines. Japanese stocks are influenced by declines in U.S. stocks. Chinese stocks are affected similarly, though yuan weakness is a positive concern.The yuan is approaching its all-time low against the U.S. dollar, heading toward a historical low. Globally, the pace of stock price increases and decreases is speeding up, and volatility is rising. This week, too, we should watch stock market movements closely.

2) Italy Budget Plan

The European Commission rejected Italy’s budget plan a couple of weeks ago. Within three weeks, Italy must revise and resubmit its budget, but Italy seems unlikely to revise the plan. A rejection of a budget like this is the first since the EU's inception, so all eyes are on what happens next.

Additionally, following the budget announcement, credit rating reviews were issued—Moody's downgraded by one notch,S&P changed its outlook from 'Stable' to 'Negative'. The euro's movement after the announcements was limited; the outcome may have already been priced in. Or perhaps the results were slightly better than what was priced in. Following the rating agencies' announcements, all eyes will be on stock prices and interest rates this week.

3) Brexit Negotiations and UK Politics

October is almost over.The United Kingdom will exit the EU on March 29 of next year.Five more months remain. Exit negotiations have not yet reached an agreement. If talks proceed without a deal, the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit increases. However, concessions that would require approval at home could cause domestic turmoil and fail to gain parliament support. Other concerns include that, with Brexit, visibility about the future is unclear, so active economic activity may be restrained, leading to a gradual slowdown in the economy.,and a gradual economic slowdown seems to be occurring.This week, inflation reports will be released, and 'Super Thursday'—the bank’s policy announcements—are scheduled. We should watch how central banks interpret signs of economic slowdown in their inflation reports and press conferences.

4) Midterm Elections Approaching

As noted above, U.S. stocks are retreating to correct roughly the gains made this year. President Trump says, "The economy is doing well thanks to me." Given this, a sharp stock decline would be unacceptable to him. Especially ahead of the midterm elections, he may take some action. However, Trump's fear is that stock market improvements are not guaranteed, and he might criticize someone as stocks fall.

In this midterm election, the House is split five-to-five between Republicans and Democrats. The election is in the late stages. This week is a focal point for Trump’s moves.

◎ This Week’s Economic Calendar

Sun, 10/28

London and Europe: End of Daylight Saving Time
Germany Hesse State Parliament Election
Brazil Presidential Election—Second Round

18:30　GBP　UK Consumer Credit
21:30　USD　PCE Deflator
22:45　USD　Evans, Chicago Fed President Speech

09:30　AUD　Building Permits

15:30　EUR　France GDP
17:00　EUR　Spain CPI
18:00　EUR　Italy GDP
19:00　EUR　Eurozone GDP and Consumer Confidence
22:00　EUR　Germany HICP
23:00　USD　U.S. Consumer Confidence
23:00　MXN　Mexico GDP

06:45　NZD　Building Permits
09:01　GBP　UK GfK Consumer Confidence

10:00　CNY　China Manufacturing PMI

15:30　JPY
16:45　EUR　France HICP
17:00　EUR　Spain GDP

BIS, Italy Central Bank President Speech
19:00　EUR　Italy HICP
19:00　EUR　Eurozone Unemployment and HICP


23:30　USD Crude Oil Inventories

09:30　AUD　Trade Balance

16:30　SEK　Sweden Manufacturing PMI

Bank of England Policy Rate Announcement, MPC vote distribution, Inflation Report
21:30　GBP Carney BOE Governor Press Conference
22:45　USD　Manufacturing PMI
23:00　USD

Fri, 11/2

09:30　AUD





18:30　GBP
21:30　USD
21:30　CAD

Fri, 11/3

Sat, 11/4