Europe time is hot! ~ Highlights and event schedule for October 25 ~

◎ Highlights for today

1)ECB Governing Council

I don't expect policy changes at today's ECB Governing Council. The focus is on President Draghi's remarks (press conference).

①Regarding the peak of Europe’s economic growth rate. Recent PMI and consumer confidence data for the euro area show a slowdown. Is it temporary or a cause for concern? We are watching closely.

②Italy's budget and interest rate differentialsare under dispute between Europe and Italy. Long-term Italian yields have risen, and the spread with Germany is widening.

③Protectionist policies. Attention is on how these policies and tariffs, starting with the United States, are perceived and what impacts they may have.

2)Turkey Policy Rate Announcement

Central bank independence is in focus. Will it remain as before under the influence of President Erdogan, or could rate hikes occur if political tensions lessen Erdogan’s influence?

Turkey recently delivered a large rate hike at the last policy meeting. While many expect no change this time, given inflation, another rate hike may be warranted. Erdogan has not altered his stance of a low-rate policy, has urged private banks to cut rates, and has pressured the central bank to cut rates rather than raise them. There are reports that Erdogan’s ally far-right party may have broken the alliance. If Erdogan’s political influence wanes due to political instability, the central bank may have more flexibility.

3)Italy Credit Rating Review (S&P)

TomorrowItaly’s rating review is scheduled. Europe has rejected Italy’s budget. Italy refuses to revise its budget in response. The rift is deepening.Attention on Italy and Europe’s moves ahead of rating changes.

4)UK political instability

Yesterday there was little talk of it, but Prime Minister May’s no-confidence motion is drawing attention.With Brexit negotiations at a standstill, domestic political instability in the UK is growing. Headlines deserve close watch.

5)Global stock decline

Asia led by Chinese shares fell, Europe dragged down by UK and Italy concerns, and the US saw a large drop in equities. Global stock markets are under pressure.The causes vary,but Chinese and American stocks may be responding to distorted Trump policies. Tariffs on China are contributing to declines in Chinese equities, while concerns about China’s growth are hurting US corporate earnings and US stocks. If this dynamic persists, the sell-off could become prolonged. Watch the trajectory of stock prices closely.

※ I plan to summarize the key points and strategies in separate articles for each highlight.

◎ Today’s Event Schedule

10/25 (Thursday)

08:00　USDPowell Fed Chair or Brainerd remarks
15:00　NOK　Norway unemployment rate
17:00　NOK　Norway policy rate announcement
20:00　TRYTurkey policy rate announcement
20:45　EURECB Governing Council meeting and statement
21:30　EURDraghi, ECB President, press conference

10/26 (Friday)

S&P Italy rating review

01:15　USDLael Brainard, Fed Vice Chair, remarks

↓↓↓ For the weekly schedule, please refer to the following ↓↓↓

A week with many central bank rate announcements and important speeches! Highlights and event schedule for the week of October 22

◎ Recorded Room

Yesterday’s stock, rate, and notable statements are recorded below.

October 24 Records – Rates, stock prices, and important speeches