Attention to statements and announcements from Europe, Italy, and Turkey! ~ Strategy for October 23 ~
◎ Current Positions and Strategies
Short position in EUR/USD is being held. Yesterday's Euro decline was a wait-and-see, so I am not holding additional positions, but I plan to add if the next target “1.1430” is breached. Even if the budget bill is rejected, I would like to hold additional positions.
EUR/USD Daily Chart
EUR/USD Hourly Chart
Short position in AUD/USD is being held. Also, yesterday was a wait-and-see, but it is headed toward breaking recent lows. I will consider adding once the recent low is broken. Today, RBA officials will continue speaking. Pay attention to official statements. Also, reports of deteriorating performance of Australia’s four major banks. It is also reported that the ruling party lost in a by-election and may fall short in the House of Representatives. Australia is experiencing increasing political instability. When combined with China issues, this is a substantial selling factor. Based on the current image, I think holding short positions through the year might be OK.
AUD/USD Hourly Chart
AUD/USD Daily Chart
Other than that,it seems the pound may surge violently. At the intraday level, I am watching pound trading. If there is progress in Brexit negotiations, I am considering buying pounds and adjusting the strategy. If it falls, the market has already priced it in to a large extent, so it is hard to determine how far it will drop, so I want to avoid a selling strategy.
◎ Today’s Highlights
1)Italy Budget Bill
Regarding Italy's budget bill, the European side is expected to publish their response. There is no precedent for a budget bill being rejected so far. Based on yesterday’s statements and reports, the European side may reject the budget bill! The Italian side may revise it from 2.4% to 2.1%! It is not yet decided. It could be the first rejection of a budget bill. The euro is selling off heavily on concerns. Watch the course of the budget bill and the responses from Italy and Europe.
Moody’s rating release, Italy downgraded! ~ FX and Ratings explained ~
2)British Parliament and Brexit Negotiations
Prime Minister May gave a speech indicating Brexit negotiations are close to an agreement (about 95%). However, May is currently in a difficult position. To keep the May administration, its coalition partners are crucial. The coalition partners have recently expressed opposition to May’s withdrawal plan. Additionally, Boris Johnson is reportedly plotting a coup to consolidate the hardliners. If the withdrawal plan has broad support in Parliament and among coalition partners, the European side may not be able to accept it. May appears to be cornered with the withdrawal plan. Watch how this is handled. Some say Johnson’s coup could emerge as early as tomorrow. Caution is advised.
3)President Erdogan’s Speech
In recent days, markets have been buzzing about the disappearance and presumed killing of a Saudi journalist and how countries are responding. The involvement of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is suspected. He denies involvement, but President Erdogan of Turkey claims to have the evidence. It is said that evidence will be revealed in today’s speech, so pay attention to the content. Depending on the details, countries may condemn, and US sanctions are also possible. If US sanctions occur, crude oil prices could rise and stocks could fall. Pay attention to today’s remarks and speech.
◎ Today’s Event Schedule
Tuesday, 10/23
Speech on Turkey and Saudi journalist issue
Europe and Italy budget bill discussions and responses
10:30 AUD Bolton RBA Assistant Governor Speaking
12:00 AUD Block RBA Assistant Governor Speaking
13:30 AUDDebelle RBA Deputy Governor Speaking
19:30 GBPHolden BOE Deputy Governor Speaking
22:30 USD Kashkari Minneapolis Fed President Speaking
23:00 EUR European Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, 10/24
00:20 GBPCarney BOE Governor Speaking
03:15 USDKaplan Dallas Fed President Speaking
09:00 USDGeorge Kansas City Fed President Speaking
↓↓↓ Please refer to the weekly schedule below ↓↓↓
◎ Recording Room
We are recording yesterday’s stock prices, long-term interest rates, and major speeches.
October 22 Recording Room ~ Interest rates, stocks, and key speeches ~
