Aug 5 (Mon): 【Harmonic】 Nikkei 225 vs Russell 2000

Good evening.

August 4th (Sun) is a new moon.

It is often said that during major rallies the timing is around the full moon and the new moon.

※Sorry, I’m still at my wife’s parents’ home, so I don’t have the data for the full/new moon on hand…

On August 2nd (Fri), the “decline range” of the Nikkei 225 was reportedly the second largest after Black Monday…

However, that is the “decline range.”

Viewed by the “decline rate,” it isn’t a big deal.

But as noted in Harmonic’s newsletter,

the declines up to yesterday may just be the prologue.

In Bollinger Bands you cannot identify a target zone for the decline,

but Harmonic keeps presenting the rate continuously.

Yes, there is a range, roughly 19,000 to 14,000 yen.

If it were 14,000 yen, that would be less than half of now.

From the high of 42,000 yen, it would be one-third.

Whether that will really happen is unknown, but Harmonic leads to that conclusion, so it can’t be helped.

If it doesn’t happen, then Harmonic was simply “not applicable.”

However, even if there is a collapse from here, it won’t be a straight plunge.

There will likely be a rebound.

There is also a possibility of a fairly sizable rebound.

Therefore, keep a firm view toward the opposite direction as well.

This time,

I’d like to compare with the ‘canary in the coal mine’ that precedes a bear market decline, the ‘Russell 2000.’

I’ll look at that comparison.

【Notice】

I will be returning to my wife’s family home from 7/22 to 8/6.

Therefore, the newsletter will generally be delivered the night before.

※ Monday morning → posted at night

※ Some days may be posted in the morning as well.

I would appreciate your flexible understanding regarding this.

Please also note that replies to DMs, etc., may be delayed.

【About newsletter issues】

● Images in the newsletter crack.

● Font size and color change automatically.

These issues are occurring.

Therefore, I plan to try writing without emojis or colors for a while.

There is no change in the content, please understand…

(※ The following is for members only.)