Will the pound trend emerge!? UK Party Conference finished! ~ October 3 strategy, points of attention, and event schedule ~
◎ Current Positions and Strategies
EUR/USD Short position partially closed. EUR/USD fell sharply yesterday, but since it could not break below 1.1500, I closed half at the rebound. I have a stop at 1.1620, and if 1.1500 is breached, I plan to add back the positions that were closed.
EUR/USD Daily Chart
EUR/USD Hourly Chart
CAD/JPY Long position is being held. I will not change the bullish view and aim for the 90 yen area, but I am considering 88.00 as one of the exit points. With the unemployment data coming up over the weekend, I am considering either closing all or part of the positions. Since there has been a gap opened, I want to be mindful of the possibility of a gap filling.
CAD/JPY Hourly Chart
CAD/JPY Daily Chart
In addition, I am watching the pound. Today is the final day of the UK Conservative Party Conference. Prime Minister May is scheduled to give a speech on the final day. Historically, speeches there can be volatile. If a trend emerges after the conference ends, I would like to hold a position for about 1 to 2 days.
◎ Focus for Today
1)Italy Budget Plan
There are concerns about a sharp rise in Italy’s long-term yields. Watch the widening gap between Italian and German long-term yields. Also, will the budget plan be revisited or pushed through forcibly? I will also pay attention to the direction. There have been many related statements recently. I plan to summarize them separately depending on the content and situation.
↓↓↓ For points of note on the Italian budget plan, see below ↓↓↓
From Italy: Could there be a fiscal crisis? Explaining the Italian budget plan and Euro decline!!
2)UK Conservative Party Conference
Today is the final day. Yesterday drew attention to Boris Johnson’s speech. He strongly rejected Prime Minister May’s withdrawal plan. However, at the end, he urged support for Prime Minister May and called for the party to unite. This alleviated concerns that Johnson might replace May as prime minister, causing a temporary rise in the pound.
Today’s speech by Prime Minister May is the main focus. Historically, there is often large movement before and after speeches. I will be cautious.
3)Turkey CPI (Consumer Price Index) Release
The central bank raised rates sharply at the last monetary policy meeting. This is the CPI release that follows. How big will the number be? Will it necessitate further rate hikes? The lira has stabilized after the previous rate hike, but depending on today’s release, there is a risk of renewed selling, so I will monitor carefully.
◎ Today’s Economic Indicators Schedule
Wednesday 10/3
UK Conservative Party Conference
10:30 AUD Housing Permits
15:30 SEK Services PMI
16:00 TRYTurkey CPI (Consumer Price Index)
16:50 EUR France Services PMI
16:55 EUR Germany Services PMI
17:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI
17:30 GBP UK Services PMI
18:30 GBPMay Prime Minister Conservative Conference Speech(Scheduled)
19:30 USD Evans Chicago Fed President Remarks
21:05 USDBarron Richmond Fed President Remarks
21:15 USDADP Employment Report
22:45 USD Markit Composite PMI
23:00 USDISM Non-Manufacturing PMIs
23:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday 10/4
03:00 USDFed Governor Brainard Remarks
03:15 USD Mester Cleveland Fed President Remarks
