Escape from the Holy Grail search

Geko is here.

In the second installment, I will share the reason I started FX development.


【Win rate 99%!?】
I restarted FX, but

my trading method was a simple one that just followed a "signal tool" I obtained from somewhere, and
I hardly did any market analysis with my own head.

The tools I acquired ranged from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of yen,

including catchy ones like “Win rate 99%.”






Of course, the world isn’t that generous.

If simply using that signal tool could make everyone a winner, everyone would be a winner.

FX is a world of win or lose, so a “99% win rate” is structurally impossible.




Well, probabilistically it isn’t impossible...

If you trade 100 times and win 99 in a row, you could just stop trading after that.




While repeating all that, I became interested in

“verification of logic”

and my interest shifted.




Would the conditions for generating signs that exist in the market truly work in the forex market?

Would they actually work in currency markets?



【MT4 Backtesting feature】

Even if you say you’re verifying, displaying arrows on past charts

and jotting down trade records bit by bit would take an enormous amount of time,



even if you could verify in the past, doing it by hand would only cover about a year at most.




But you know,

If you have the FX trading software “MT4” provided by MetaQuotes, you can verify it easily.




MT4 has a feature called Strategy Tester,

which allows you to verify logic over many years using past forex data.

This verification is called “backtesting.”

If you can rewrite your logic into an automated trading system (EA), then by backtesting you can see

“how well it would have performed in past markets.”

at a glance.



What would happen to an initial 1 million yen over 10 years?????


can be revealed in no time.




【If you’re going to verify, make it EA】

So I became an EA developer.


Now, while looking at charts, I think, “What about this kind of logic?”
and I create EAs and verify them relentlessly.




By the way, most of the logic I paid for and brought in so far

couldn’t endure a backtest of the past 10 years.



I finally realized that there is no holy grail.


These days, I place more weight on verification itself.