After the FOMC rate hike, will the market move? ~ September 27 strategy, points of focus, and event schedule ~
First, regarding yesterday's FOMC, it is summarized below. Please refer to it.
Policy rate hike of 0.25% explained for the FOMC!
◎ Current positions and strategy
fell sharply due to negative remarks about NAFTA renegotiation. Since profits had not yet been realized, I am keeping the entry stop at “85.60.” CAD/JPY is rising within an upward channel, so I have hope it will reach around the 90 yen level.
CAD/JPY Daily chart
In response to this FOMC,I established a Short position in USD/JPY However, this is not a position I have strong confidence in, so I intend to keep the stop tight at “113.30.” I am considering “112.40” as the first target and “112.00” as the second target.
EUR/USD seems likely to rise based on recent movements. The latest concern is Italy’s budget proposal,so if the budget stays within 2% deficit, I would view it as an upward channel and consider a long position. If the budget exceeds 2%, I fear it could break the upward channel downward, so I am considering a short stance.From the hourly chart’s white dotted circle, I am watching to see whether it breaks upward or downward. watching.
EUR/USD Daily chart
EUR/USD Intraday chart
◎ Today's points of focus
1)UK party conference and statements by key figures
Today, the Labour Party conference wraps up, with remarks from Chief Economist Holeden and ECB President Carney scheduled. Also, statements by ECB Executive Director Praet may relate to Brexit negotiations. Recently, the pound has become a volatile currency that rises or falls dramatically on certain statements. Exercise caution.
2)Italy budget proposal release
EU concerns include Italy's budget. EU member states must submit and approve budgets. Budgets that could lead to fiscal deficits are not approved. However, the new Italian government aims to expand fiscal spending to stimulate the economy, so attention is on whether a budget can be proposed that does not worsen the fiscal situation in a way acceptable to the EU. If a budget worsens the finances, I expect a euro sell-off reaction.
3)Direction of trade talks among Japan, the U.S., China, Europe, and Canada
The U.S. clearly wants to address the trade deficit. China is taking a confrontational stance. Canada continues negotiations but seems to firmly set red lines. Europe is negotiating flexibly. Japan's position is...
The content of trade talks will affect equities, interest rates, and currencies. Watch for statements closely. The Fed's rate hike has caused irritation. While spewing barbs at the Fed may happen, it cannot influence its policies directly. I sense the blowback could land somewhere else. Today and tomorrow, pay attention to President Trump’s tweets.
4)Poloz's remarks as BOC Governor
I hold CAD positions, so I am paying attention to remarks about rate hikes. Currently, another rate hike seems unlikely to be the next move.
◎ Today's economic data schedule
9/27 (Thursday)
15:35 JPY
20:45 GBP
21:30 USD Durable Goods Orders・
23:00 GBP
02:05 EUR
06:45 CAD
08:50 JPY
◎ Recording Room
Records of yesterday's currency strength/weakness graph, world stock indices, long-term interest rates of various countries, and key speakers are recorded below.
Recording Room for September 26, 2018 ～ Key speakers and long-term rates ~
