Trade Agreement and Brexit, Focus on the Political Market ~ Strategies, Outlook, and Event Schedule for September 24 ~

◎ Current positions and strategies

Last weekend, all positions were closed for the time being.

The EUR/GBP short position was on track, but was stopped out by Ms. May.

The NZD/USD long position was closed for a small profit.

Today, Japan is a holiday, so starting from London and New York time, I would like to keep a wait-and-see stance.

The currencies of focus are EUR, GBP, USD, and JPY.

↓↓↓ The strategies for each are summarized below ↓↓↓

Euro and Pound outlook and strategy — After the September EU summit —

◎ Today's points of focus

1)UK political issues

Britain is scheduled for Labour Party conference from 23rd to 26th,, and Conservative Party conference from 30th September to 3 October. It is unsure what will happen at both party conferences. Positive or negative materials may come out. Therefore, at present it is difficult to make a definite call on the pound.

2)European reaction and Draghi's remarks

Last weekend’s EU summit ended turbulently. It seemed that Europe would move towards some compromise, but the denial of Britain (Prime Minister May)'s exit plan led to a tense mood. As the week begins, what European leaders will say is of interest! Also, with Draghi’s remarks scheduled, attention will be on those statements.

3)Japan-U.S. trade talks

This week features Japan-U.S., Europe-U.S. trade talks and the Japan-U.S. leaders’ summit. We will watch for statements on trade and tariffs. Also, with the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election over, market moves around the Nikkei and the dollar-yen will be of interest. Watch the Nikkei and the dollar-yen together.

◎ Today's event schedule

9/24 (Monday)

UK Labour Party conference
Japan-U.S. trade talks (FFR)

21:30 CAD Wholesale Trade
22:00 EUR Draghi ECB President speech22:00 MXN Mexico CPI (Consumer Price Index)
22:00 MXN Mexico CPI (Consumer Price Index)

9/25 (Tuesday)

UK Labour Party conference
US-EU trade talks

02:00 USD 2-year Treasury note auction
08:50 JPYMinutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting (7/31)
14:30 JPY Kuroda, Bank of Japan Governor, remarks

◎ Recording Room

We record currency strength/weakness graphs, stock prices, long-term interest rates, and remarks by officials.

↓↓↓ For September 20th, please refer to the following. ↓↓↓

Recording Room on September 21, 2018 — Officials’ remarks and long-term interest rates —