A weekend focused on political events! ~ Event schedule and highlights for September 21 ~

◎ Weekend Event Schedule

9/21 (Friday)

Japan-US Trade Talks (Ministerial)
S&P Rebalancing

08:30　JPY　CPI (Consumer Price Index)
15:45　EUR　France GDP
16:15　EUR　France Manufacturing & Services PMI
16:30　EUR　Germany Manufacturing & Services PMI
17:00　EUR　Eurozone Manufacturing & Services PMI
20:00　GBPQuarterly Report
21:30　CADCPI (Consumer Price Index)
22:45　USD　Services & Composite PMI

9/22 (Saturday)

02:00　USD　Baker Hughes Rig Count

9/23 (Sunday)

UK Labour Party Conference (23–26)

◎ Weekend Highlights

1)EU Summit (informal) results

This informal EU summit won’t wrap up negotiations, but the stances of both sides are worth confirming! Brexa negotiations are the biggest focal point for the UK and EU, and with deadlines nearing, markets have recently been highly moved by comments on Brexit negotiations..

↓↓↓ The progress of statements and upcoming focal points are summarized below ↓↓↓

EU Summit progress and future schedule

2)UK Labour Party Conference

The conference starts this weekend. At party conferences, topics like a second referendum, leadership changes (coup), and major issues often arise.Unlike Japan, party conferences are a very significant event in UK politics. We plan to adjust pound positions firmly over the weekend.

3)Japan-US Trade Talks

Yesterday, Prime Minister Abe was re-elected for a third term. A Japan-US leaders’ summit is scheduled for next week. Meanwhile, Japan-US trade talks (ministerial level) will begin. Historically, the US has targeted many countries in trade negotiations, but Japan has not been heavily attacked. However, President Trump recently tweeted that Japan could be next.With the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election concluded and Abe's administration set to continue, there is a high likelihood of intensified pressure on Japan. We will watch the contents of the talks closely. Depending on the details, it could exert downward pressure on equities and USD/JPY.

4)Canada CPI (Consumer Price Index)

Canada has continued rate hikes. It is important to assess the impact of hikes, and depending on the details, further rate hikes may be signaled. Among indicators, CPI is the most closely watched for rate decisions. It is also a highly volatile indicator due to its high attention.

◎ Positions and Strategy

Holding a Short position in EUR/GBP.

EUR/USD Short position was treated as the upper bound at “1.1710,” so I took profit on the short I held yesterday. I also held a Short at “1.1720,” but yesterday I failed and cut at “1.1750.”

EUR strength exists, but USD weakness seems stronger.

I opened a Long position in NZD/USD, but I don’t want to carry positions over the weekend, so I am considering settling today.

◎ Recording Room

I am recording currency strength graphs, stock prices, long-term interest rates, and statements by important figures.

↓↓↓ Please refer to the September 20 records below. ↓↓↓

Records for September 20, 2018 — Key statements and long-term rates