The China-US trade war worsens; focusing on Chinese stock prices and retaliation!! ~Key indicators schedule and points of interest for September 18~

◎ Today's Economic Indicator Schedule

9/18 (Tuesday)

10:30　AUD Housing Price Index
10:30　AUD minutes of the monetary policy meeting
16:00　EUR Bank of France Governor
16:15　EUR Draghi President speech
16:30　SEK Swedish Unemployment Rate
21:00　HUF Hungary Policy Rate Announcement

9/19 (Wednesday)

07:45　NZD Current Account
10:30　AUD Kent RBA Deputy Governor remarks
Around 12:00　JPY BOJ Policy Summary
15:30　JPY Kuroda BoJ Governor press conference

◎ Today's Highlights

1)Impact of Additional Tariffs on China and Stocks

Concerns over implementation Third round of tariffs on China, tariffs around $200 billion have led to a sharp drop in Chinese shares. The decline in Chinese stocks has fallen below the China shock lows. With prices breaking through key levels, further downside becomes uncertain. The yuan is also gradually weakening. If tariffs against China are enacted, focus on the drop in Chinese equities and potential Chinese retaliation against the U.S.

USD/CNH daily chart

2)Brexit Negotiations Progress and Related Remarks

Yesterday, Barnier's statements continued to raise expectations for a Brexit deal, boosting the sense that a Brexit agreement is possible. As for the pound, the negatives have largely been priced in. Going forward, if there are statements or positive signals that raise expectations of an agreement, the pound may be bought. Caution remains as information not yet priced in could emerge. Possible scenarios include Brexit talks stalling(No-deal exit), another referendum to reconsider Brexit, resignation of Prime Minister May. With the UK having upcoming party conferences and other major events, high-profile statements could occur.

3)Turkish Lira and European Concerns

As Italy’s budget concerns ease, the perceived risk in the euro area declines. However, the Turkish Lira, which rose on last week’s rate hike, is being sold again. Specifics are unclear, but some speculate ties to President Erdogan. There are reports of a concrete plan to be announced Thursday, but there is no confirmation yet. Yesterday, the Turkish Lira briefly fell back to pre-hike levels (levels vary by broker). Turkish Lira decline affecting European banks. Caution is required. Also, this includes technicals and options-related newsletters. If EUR/USD cannot push above 1.1700, a pullback is expected. Personally, I view the euro as short, so I want to be cautious of any pullbacks.

USD/TRY Hourly Chart

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

◎ Positions and Strategies

AUD/USD short position remains held.

GBP/JPY long position was partially realized. With half of the position closed, I plan to switch to EUR/GBP when it recovers.

Additionally, EUR/USD short position is in preparation. I would place a stop at 1.1600.

◎ Recording Room

I am recording currency strength charts, stock prices, long-term interest rates, and remarks from key figures.

↓↓↓ See September 17 records below. ↓↓↓

Record Room for September 17, 2018 ~ Key Remarks and Long-Term Rates ~