Today’s Indicator Schedule and Highlights (September 13) ~ About the Three Central Banks' Monetary Policy Announcements of Note ~

◎ Economic Indicator Schedule

9/13 (Thursday)

10:30　AUD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
15:00　EUR　Germany HICP
15:45　EUR　France HICP
16:30　SEK　Sweden GDP
17:00　USD　IEA Monthly Report
20:00　GBP Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Meeting & Voting Split
20:00　TRY Turkish Monetary Policy Committee Meeting
20:45　EUR ECB Governing Council
21:30　USD U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index)
21:30　EUR Draghi ECB President Press Conference
21:30　CAD　 New Housing Price Index
23:00　USD Colwill's Vice Chair Lael F. Williams? (正式名はクオールズFRB副議長発言(上院議会証言))

9/14 (Friday)

02:00　USD Boisterous Atlanta Fed President Speech
03:00　USD Monthly Budget Statement

◎ Today’s Focus

1）TCMB (Turkish Central Bank) Monetary Policy Announcement

The Turkish Central Bank has signaled it will do anything, raising expectations for the Turkish policy announcement. Recently, CPI showed inflation above 17% in Turkey. Also, due to capital outflows and Turkish bond issues, it would be dangerous if the lira does not stop weakening. The policy announcement is highly anticipated. It is likely to impact not only the lira but major currencies as well. We will be watching closely. Not only the lira but major currencies could be affected. We will keep an eye on it.

↓↓↓ Summary of expectations and more in the following article ↓↓↓

Surprising News and TCMB Policy Rate Forecast!

2）ECB Governing Council

The euro remains hampered by concerns and struggles to rise. This time as well, expectations are for a downscale at the ECB Governing Council. There will be no change in monetary policy; focus will be on the statement and press conference.

↓↓↓ Summary of the contents below ↓↓↓

Predictions and Strategy for the September ECB Council

3）UK Monetary Policy Announcement

This time, only the policy rate and the statement will be released, so there is unlikely to be a change in monetary policy. Also, since the previous rate hike, the vote is expected to be a hold at “9:0.” Pay attention to the voting split and the content of the statement. Also, basically the UK is likely planning its monetary policy on the premise of a Brexit with a deal with the EU. We will also watch for the possibility of a policy without an agreement.

◎ Current positions and strategy

EUR/USD in the run-up to the council, take profits and square up. Today’s content will determine if we take a new short position. The basic stance is to consider a short position.

AUD/USD short position is held. The dollar is weakening, though it may be temporary. If dollar weakness continues, I will consider exiting.

Turkish lira depends on TCMB policy, but if a lira sell-off is possible, I am considering a short position. However, I am thinking short-term rather than long-term.

◎ Recording Room

We keep records of currency strength, stock prices, long-term interest rates, and policymakers’ remarks.

↓↓↓ For September 7th, refer to the following. ↓↓↓

Record of September 13, 2018 — Statements by key figures and long-term interest rates