Today's Indicator Schedule and Highlights (September 10) ~ Focus on the Turkish Lira and Turkish GDP Release ~

◎ Economic Indicator Schedule

9/10 (Monday)

10:30 CNY China CPI (Consumer Price Index)
15:00 NOK Norway CPI (Consumer Price Index)
16:00 TRY Turkey GDP
17:30 GBP UK GDP

9/11 (Tuesday)

01:00 USD Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speech (Powell) at the Atlanta Federal Reserve

◎ Today's Highlights

1) Turkey GDP ahead of policy rate decision

This week, Turkey is due to release GDP while awaiting the policy rate decision, which keeps the economy from entering a rebound even as inflation has surged. The focus is likely on the policy rate, but GDP is also a key point of attention for a country drawing interest.

↓↓↓ The current situation in Turkey is summarized below. Please refer to the following for details ↓↓↓

Current issues facing Turkey! A few points listed!

2)NAFTA renegotiation and US-Japan trade talks

Last weekend, an agreement on NAFTA renegotiation seemed possible, but no agreement has been reached yet. Based on statements from leaders, an agreement may be near, but if it drags on, it could become a concern.

Additionally, President Trump’s remark that “the next target is Japan” caused the Nikkei to plunge. As tensions with China and North America ease, statements about Japan may appear and Tweets could cause sharp moves. Exercise caution as moves could be volatile.

3)U.S.-China trade war

Last weekend, additional tariffs were expected to be imposed, but have not yet been applied. With statements that additional tariffs are ready, it is unclear when they will be enacted.

Also, attention will be on China's retaliatory measures. Imposing tariffs of equivalent value would be difficult, so observers are watching how they will respond.

4)50-day moving average factors

Today is the 10th, the 50th day. “Nikkei” (center price) and FIX and other real-demand movements deserve attention.

◎ Positions and Strategy

EUR/USD Short position is still held. We are watching whether EUR/USD can break below “1.1500” or rebound back into a range. Attention is on this.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD 4-hour Chart

AUD/USD Short position is also held. Considering Australia’s weak economy, political deterioration, and the impact of the US-China trade war, AUD is unlikely to rise, so long-term short position is being considered. AUD/USD has updated to a two-year low. The weekly chart shows an upward channel breaking downward, forming a downward channel.

AUD/USD Weekly Chart

CAD/JPY Long position was taken based on Willkins’ (Deputy BoC Governor) remarks about rate hikes, but it did not extend as expected, and with the upper levels of cross-yen being heavy, it was closed for a small gain (though a small loss could have occurred).

◎ Recording Room

We are recording currency strength graphs, stock prices, long-term rates, and remarks by key figures.

↓↓↓ For September 7, refer to the following. ↓↓↓

Record Room for September 7, 2018 — Key Figures and Long-Term Rates