Canada Policy Interest Rate Announcement, Will There Be a Surprise!? ~ Highlights and Outlook for September 5, 2018 ~

◎ Today's Economic Indicators Schedule

9/5 (Wednesday)

10:30　AUDQ2 Quarterly GDP
10:45　CNY　Caixin Services PMI
15:30　SEK　Sweden Services PMI
16:45　EUR　Italy Services PMI
16:50　EUR　France Services PMI
16:55　EUR　Germany Services PMI
17:30　GBPServices PMI
21:30　USDTrade Balance
21:30　CADTrade Balance
23:00　CADBank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Statement

9/6 (Thursday)

04:00　USDWilliam R. Dudley, President of the New York Fed, speaks
05:00　USD　Kashkari, President of Minneapolis Fed, speaks
07:30　USD　Bostic, President of Atlanta Fed, speaks
10:30　AUDTrade Balance
10:30　JPY　Kataoka, BoJ Board member, speaks

◎ Today's Key Materials

1）Canada Policy Rate Announcement

Canada Policy Rate to be announced today. With the previous meeting delivering a rate hike, market consensus expects hold. However, the BoC has a history of surprising with back-to-back rate hikes,2 meetings in a row of hikes,so a surprise hike is anticipated. Watch closely for any rate hike!!

↓↓↓ Articles on Canada rate hikes are below. Please refer together. ↓↓↓

Canadian Dollar rises! Is USD/CAD breaking out of a triangle?

2）Australia Quarterly GDP Release

In yesterday's RBA monetary policy meeting, the decision was as expected to hold. The statement did not touch much on the concerns traders were watching. However, there was no positive material for the AUD, so the upside remains restrained. Today is the quarterly GDP release—the second most-watched event of the Aussie week after the policy rate decision.

↓↓↓ For articles on AUD focus materials, please refer below ↓↓↓

This Week is AUD Week!?; Explaining AUD declines

3）Long-term rates rise and fixed-rate operations

Yesterday, due to a retreat from risk-off,long-term yields rose. The 10-year JGB yield also rose.If we were before the last BoJ meeting, yields would have risen to the levels where fixed-rate operations are conducted. “10:10” ”14:00” Fixed-rate operation execution time, be mindful of the sharp rise in USD/JPY. For long-term yields, please also refer to the Research Room!!

↓↓↓ For articles on BoJ fixed-rate operations, please refer below ↓↓↓

Main opinions at the BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting (July 30-31)

Rising long-term yields and BoJ fixed-rate operations

◎ Positions and Strategy

entered at “1.1590.” Stop is currently at “1.1690.” Depending on the situation, I may exit around “1.1640.”

Additionally,if quarterly GDP misses, consider a Short AUD position.

Canada Policy Rate Announcement will be used as a signal for indicator trading; if there is a surprise rate hike, I will enter.

◎ Records Room

We record daily checks such as long-term rates, stock prices, and important speeches.

↓↓↓ If you're interested, please refer ↓↓↓

Records from September 5, 2018 — Key speeches and long-term rates