Turkey CPI release, any surprises? ~Key points and outlook on September 3, 2018~

◎ Today's Featured Events

9/3 (Monday)

Canada and US markets closed (Labor Day)

07:30　AUD　Australia Manufacturing PMI
10:30　AUD Retail Sales
10:45　CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI

16:00　TRYTurkey CPI (Consumer Price Index)

9/4 (Tuesday)

03:30　USD　Evans, President of the Chicago Fed, speaks
13:30　AUDPolicy Rate/Statement Release

◎ Today's Highlights and Outlook

1) Australia indicators and AUD movementAUD Week Outlook: Aussie in focus

This week is a big week for AUD indicators!The AUD has been declining. In this context, several indicators that strongly affect AUD are due this week. Today, Australia Retail Sales and China Caixin Manufacturing PMI are due. Also,tomorrow the policy rate decision and statement are due. The policy rate is expected to hold, according to consensus.The key is the statement.Earlier, the RBA noted that debt (mortgage) could be a future risk. Will the statement be negative or positive? We are watching. For this week's AUD, please also refer to the following.

Explaining the continued fall of the AUD: political issues and mortgage concerns

2) Turkey CPI (Consumer Price Index) release

Recently, attention has been on emerging market currencies, especially the Turkish lira. The Deputy Governor of the Turkish central bank recently resigned, and other measures were taken, but with little effect. The lira is approaching its low during the Turk shock. The true Turk shock may still be ahead. With the lira weakening, the rise in prices is the main concern.Therefore, CPI will attract attention to see how high inflation has risen.

USD/TRY – intraday chart

3)Eurozone manufacturing PMI releases

Last week the euro was on an uptrend. It pulled back a bit over the weekend, and now the PMI will indicate whether this is a pullback in an uptrend or a shift to a downtrend. Today,PMIs, leading indicators of the economy, are released. Also,countries such as Italy, Spain, Greece, and Turkey face negatives, so official remarks are watched closely. In particular, attention is on Turkey and Italy. See earlier articles for Turkey and Italy.Pay attention to remarks from officials. We are watching Turkey and Italy closely.

Euro: to fall or rise? The euro’s bad news and turning points

4)NAFTA negotiations

Last week, remarks by officials greatly influenced the market regarding renegotiating NAFTA. This week, expectations remain, but the focal points have shifted somewhat.

NAFTA renegotiations— US and Mexico reached a provisional agreementThis cooled the mood and fears rose again.Negotiations are expected to resume on the 5th. Be wary of negative factors surrounding NAFTA renegotiations between the US and Canada.Pay close attention to official remarks on NAFTA renegotiations between the US and Canada.

Canadian dollar strengthens! CADJPY breakout of triangle pattern?

NAFTA renegotiations near the finish line! CAD rally and outlook

5)Brexit Negotiations

Brexit talks were set for October, but,an emergency EU summit is planned in November,and November appears to be the final deadline. If an agreement is reached in November, guidance could be released and the pound surged, but specifics are still undecided. Statements have even hinted that a no-deal Brexit could be included. Monitor the negotiation progress closely. Domestic UK politics also attract attention ahead of Brexit.Be cautious of official statements.

Pound surges! Analysis of backdrop to Pound strength from Barnier’s Brexit negotiation comments

6)US and Canada close for Labor Day

Today both the US and Canada are on holiday (Labor Day).N.Y. time may be quiet. Also, when markets are quiet, sharp moves may occur on the news above. Watch carefully.

◎ Positions and Strategy

CAD/JPY long was closed for profit. Last week,Long CAD/JPY has been closed. Last week,NAFTA renegotiations were not reached between the US and Canada,reports of no US-Canada agreement on NAFTA renegotiations so I closed some positions. The core position yielded a small profit. led to quick profit-taking. Some profits were taken earlier, but the core position yielded a small profit.

Today is Labor Day and the start of the month/week, so I am not actively adding new positions.Today is Labor Day and the start of the month/week, so I am not actively expanding positions...I see the euro trending downThe euro is on a downside path, so I would consider short positions if the decline begins., so I will consider shorts if the decline starts.

Tomorrow,TomorrowI will wait for the RBA policy rate decision and statement to position in AUD. If the statement signals a rate hike, I may consider a long position, but generally I am leaning toward short positions.I am awaiting the RBA policy rate decision and statement to position the AUD. If the statement indicates a rate hike, I may also consider a long position, but my default is to consider short positions.. In particular, if the statement is negative, I will look to go short AUD and focus on USD currency pairs.. Specifically, if the statement is negative, I will take a short AUD and focus on USD pairs.

◎ Record Room◎ Recording Room

Long-term yields and remarks Recording Room – Friday, August 31, 2018